#BTC #ETHmarket analysis: technical support is temporarily invalid, the decline level is widening, where is the decline support?
At present, the decline of Bitcoin has temporarily stopped and there are signs of rebound. Let’s take a look at the market situation after just one day.
In today's decline, we can see that the technical support is basically invalid. The 58,000 support range that was previously focused on, and the larger 56,000 support level that followed, did not stop the decline or stabilize the market, and even the rebound was so weak. In the short term, technical support seems to be invalid.
In fact, judging from the decline on July 2, our market analysis this week has continuously seen the gradual expansion of the downward trend, from the initial 1-hour Bollinger band range to the lower line, then gradually expanded to the 4-hour, then yesterday's daily line, and even today it has completely fallen to the lower line of the weekly Bollinger band. This speed and smoothness of the decline were unexpected. Of course, some bloggers must say that this is his expectation. That is a master, originally a person in heaven, we will not compare with the master. And I have said several times this week that no one knows where the bottom is. It is better to see it step by step than to guess it.
BTC：
support:
The price has fallen and even broken through the lower line of the weekly Bollinger Band. There is support below, but it is too pessimistic.
The weekly MA50 support is 47,500, which is the support after breaking through the weekly Bollinger Band. In fact, when the weekly line breaks, it is more likely to look at the monthly line support.
The monthly Bollinger Band middle line supports 40,000. This point is a bit too pessimistic. To be honest, if the price reaches this position, it will be uncomfortable.
resistance:
56,500, this position is the lower line of the Bollinger Band at the daily/weekly level. The current decline is accompanied by the downward movement of moving averages at all levels. There is no moving average divergence in the short term, so the downward trend is still there. If this position can be broken through and stabilized, it means that the price has returned to the daily and weekly Bollinger Band range. Not to mention how high it can rebound, at least the short-term decline will be paused and there is a room for stabilization.
RSI: The index has fallen below 30, but the short-term oversold rebound has not yet arrived.
ETH：
support:
2830, the lower support of the weekly Bollinger Band, is also where the rebound is currently occurring. If it falls below, we will continue to look at the weekly MA7 of 2570. If this is broken, the limited support on the monthly line is at 2300, which is similar to Bitcoin and is overly pessimistic.
resistance:
Ethereum's downward trend is better than Bitcoin's. The weekly line did not directly fall below it, so the 3,000-point resistance is crucial. If the rebound stabilizes at this position, the price will return to the daily Bollinger Band. The short-term decline will be temporarily stopped, and there is a possibility of continuing to rebound and repair.
RSI: Similarly, if it falls below 30, wait for more oversold rebound sentiment.
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Through today's decline, everyone can actually see the fragility of the technical side in the emotional side. The weight of emotion is greater than that of technology. This is a reality, but it cannot be said that the technical side is useless. We must use it as a reference, and observe the breakthrough or decline of key points to make better market judgments. The analysis is rational and is a process of disenchantment, not a process of enchantment.
The current pessimism in the market comes from the poor macro environment, the delay in interest rate cuts, the lack of market liquidity, the excessive absorption of liquidity by U.S. stocks and gold, as well as various negative selling events, etc. When the market rises, we must also consider the macro sentiment first. The probability of a rate cut in September is still very high. What we can expect this week is that tonight's big non-agricultural data and the unemployment rate will bring certain encouragement to the market. Not to mention how much the increase can be, as long as the market can stabilize and not continue to expand its downward trend, it will be much better to get through this weekend safely.
#BTC走勢分析 #ETH🔥🔥🔥🔥 $BTC
