Before going into details, Okane updated the situation on ALT in parts 1 and 2.

- BTC DOM is currently increasing towards the 57% resistance even though the entire market including BTC and Alt are red

- Others.Dom has decreased to near the green trend, supporting the long-term trend. In fact, since Okane's analysis, Alt has split 2-3 times. We are expecting this trend to support Alt like the previous 3 trend hits.

If the previous 2 parts discussed the necessary conditions and supported the fact that there will be a great opportunity for Alt, they forgot one thing, which is that the BTC supports Alt season.

Why say that, after all BTC is King of coin, BTC has half of the market capitalization, it only sneezes and Alt also splits 5 to 7. Depending on each stage, BTC increases then Alt decreases, BTC sideways then Alt flies, BTC decreases then Alt splits, BTC increases then Alt goes sideways or splits less... But the prerequisite for Alt season is that BTC must surpass the old cycle peak.

Only then will players feel secure and willing to spend a lot of money and then new money will flow into the market, at that time the market will officially fomo and that money will flow into Alt a lot to pump one after another. So now let's go back and see if BTC supports this or not?

(*1) First, we see that the capitalization is getting bigger and bigger but BTC is growing less, that's right, money is not air that can be pumped forever, specifically:

2012~2014: x450 times

2015~2018: x100 times

2019~2021: x23 times

2022~present: x4 times

Notice that the ratio of the previous cycle divided by the next cycle gives a result of about ~4.5. Temporarily calculate this cycle will be x5 times, which is 77k!? (The number also needs to be thought about, has BTC completed the uptrend or not?)

(*2) If you pay attention, you will see the light blue horizontal price lines, those are the supports and resistances I have drawn. Currently we are below the resistance of 69k, the next resistance will be 300k!?. I don't know what the future will be like but with my method, BTC has a future of 300k, I just don't know when and first of all it needs to surpass 69k.

Look at these horizontal lines, you will see that it is completely reasonable from the beginning of BTC until now, when it surpasses a resistance, it will approach the resistance above, above and above, when it decreases, it decreases to that line and then increases again, there has never been a case where the price is hovering between the 2 lines I drew. So now the problem lies here, can BTC surpass this resistance? If it does not surpass, then Part 1 Part 2 and above are meaningless, there will be no true Alt season.

(*3) Another factor to increase the chance of BTC overcoming resistance is the time frame. The previous cycles were 29~31 months up and 13~15 months down. We are currently in an 18-month uptrend, and there may still be 10 months left before the uptrend ends. If we overcome it, will it reach 300k? I really don't believe this, because that would mean BTC's capitalization would increase 20 times for this cycle.

It can also be explained by the fact that since 2024, BTC has been a legally recognized commodity after the ETF was approved, Wall Street has also jumped into the game, so this capitalization can be accepted as reasonable. (Like Gold ETF 2007) But if BTC x20, how many times will Alt x? It must be terrible, right? So, the problem now is waiting for BTC to surpass the peak decisively and when.

Case 1: BTC will sideways near resistance and then surpass it in the next 2 months, coinciding with the timing of Alt analyzed in part 2, which is in sync, good for both.

Case 2: BTC will decrease by 1 beat to around 45~50k, Alt will divide by 2~4l to approach the green trend line in part 2, then BTC will bounce strongly to break the resistance and bull run, Alt will run later, when BTC sideways or reaches the top, Alt will fly away.

These are the most positive scenarios, but we still need a bad scenario to reserve in case we are wrong, which is Part 4 when BTC has a peak and a downtrend. Therefore, the necessary condition now is the support of BTC to surpass the peak to complete the Altseason plan.