The black swan theory once again shrouds the market!
In fact, many fans of the square only know that black swans mean a big crash, so they don’t even know the definition of the word black swan!
Black swan events refer to events that people often find to be wrong. In the financial industry, they are generally major unexpected events with a very large impact scale and a very low probability of occurrence. Once they occur, they will produce destructive fluctuations.
The reason why it is called black swan is that everyone initially thought that all swans were white. Everyone thought so at the time. Until the black swan was discovered later, the worldview of "all swans are white" was shattered, and people's fair information was wrong.
If someone says that there will be a black swan in an absolute time, or that there will be no black swan, they will all be treated as charlatans.
The definition of black swan is "unpredictable risk accident". Since it is unpredictable, don't use the word "definitely".
1. There will be a wash before the bull market starts, but it is not necessarily caused by a black swan. It may be a technical correction. Wash ≠ black swan.
2. Black swans are not waiting to appear, so don't expect a black swan to buy you at the bottom. Black swans often appear when you least expect it.
3. The idea is to focus on prevention. This is a probabilistic event, which means it "may" happen, so you should prepare a response plan in advance.
4. Opportunities are hidden in danger. If a black swan appears, it is an excellent opportunity to enter the market, but the fear of human nature will cause most people not to dare to do so.
So you are the market development to now, according to your previous guess, it is expected that there will be a black swan-style plunge and wash the market, and start a crazy bull market. Then what we need to do is to predict and prevent, reduce holdings of some small currencies, and be cautious in taking long-term contracts!
Black swans are unpredictable, but callback wash is inevitable. If the car wants to go far, it needs to lose weight. Institutional currency circles will not make money with all leverage!
The last 90% of the contract is liquidation.
Of course, wash-out does not mean an absolute bad thing, but it is another opportunity to get rich.
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