Headlines
BTC falls below $57,000
The market shows that BTC fell below $57,000 and is now trading at $56,972, with a daily drop of 5.5%. The market is volatile, so please do a good job of risk control.
▌Biden's chances of winning the election hit a new record low at 9%
Prediction market Polymarket posted on the X platform that Biden's chances of winning have hit a new record low at 9%. In contrast, Trump's chances of winning are 61%.
Quotes
As of press time, according to Coingecko data:
The latest transaction price of BTC is $57,186.19, with a daily change of -5.2%;
ETH's latest transaction price is $3,067.59, with a daily change of -7.0%;
BNB's latest transaction price is $513.88, with a daily change of -7.6%;
SOL's latest trading price is $128.01, with a daily change of -9.0%;
DOGE's latest trading price is $0.1048, with a daily change of -11.5%;
XPR’s most recent trading price is $0.4339, with a daily change of -8.7%.
policy
▌German MPs urge the German government to stop selling Bitcoin
German MP Joana Cotar strongly criticized the government’s decision to sell $195 million worth of Bitcoin, arguing that the move increased market volatility and could have a long-term negative impact on the stability of the cryptocurrency market. The Bitcoins came from an investigation into the illegal website Movie2k.to.
Cotar said on Twitter that the German government should reconsider this strategy and discuss Bitcoin as a strategic reserve currency in comparison with the United States. She invited officials to attend the "National Bitcoin Strategy" lecture on October 17, which will be presented by Bitcoin strategist Samson Mow to discuss how to use Bitcoin to enhance the national economy.
▌South Korea's FSS's new exchange monitoring system will promote market stability
South Korea’s Financial Supervisory Service (FSS) announced the launch of a new monitoring system aimed at strengthening supervision of cryptocurrency exchanges and preventing fraudulent transactions. According to the latest announcement, local exchanges will establish a continuous monitoring system and regularly report abnormal transactions to ensure that their legal obligations are fulfilled.
The move will be implemented simultaneously with the first cryptocurrency investor protection regulatory framework, the Virtual Asset User Protection Law, on July 19. At the same time, the Digital Asset Exchange Alliance (DAXA) and 20 local exchanges released the "Best Practice Guidelines for Supporting Digital Asset Transactions", which aims to provide a more relaxed review plan for assets that have been compliantly traded in overseas markets for more than two years.
These measures show South Korea’s proactive attitude towards cryptocurrency regulation, committed to improving market stability, protecting investors, and combating financial crime.
▌Report: MiCA is expected to become the basis for global stablecoin regulation
The Digital Euro Association has released a report analyzing the impact of Europe’s MiCA regulations on the issuance of stablecoins. The report states that MiCA is expected to become the basis for global stablecoin regulation, but also makes suggestions for improvement. The report recommends the establishment of a global body similar to the Basel Committee to unify stablecoin standards and gain insights from the implementation of MiCA.
The report criticized MiCA’s strict regulations, such as requiring ordinary stablecoins and important stablecoins to hold 30% and 60% reserves respectively, which affected profitability and increased credit risk. The collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, which led to the decoupling of Circle’s USDC, is an example.
The report also discusses the ambiguity of anti-money laundering (AML) regulations, arguing that further clarification is needed. In addition, international stablecoin issuers face challenges in complying with MiCAR, such as hiring an EU-authorized custodian and addressing the complexity of dual issuance structures.
The report disagrees with MiCA’s scalability limits on the use of foreign currency e-money tokens in the EU, arguing that this could weaken the USD/EUR trading pair, which is not the case. Overall, the report lists many grey areas and topics that need to be considered in the EU and elsewhere.
Blockchain Applications
▌Hamilton launches tokenized U.S. Treasury bonds based on Bitcoin’s second-layer network
Crypto startup Hamilton has launched a tokenized U.S. Treasury bond (HUST) on the Bitcoin layer 2 blockchain, with the first transaction completed on July 4. HUST will be available on Bitcoin layer 2 solutions such as Stacks, Core, and BoB.
Hamilton called it a first, combining the stability of the Bitcoin network with the reliability of the U.S. dollar to provide returns superior to stablecoins. Hamilton CEO Kasstawi said the move marked an important step in financial independence and provided key investment opportunities for emerging markets. The total locked value of tokenized real-world assets (RWAs) has reached $8 billion, benefiting from the scalability and functionality improvements of the Bitcoin second-layer network.
Web3 users hit a record high of 10 million in Q2
According to the latest report from blockchain analysis platform DappRadar, the number of daily active unique wallets (dUAW) for Web3 applications reached a record high of 10 million in the second quarter, an increase of 40% from the first quarter. The report pointed out that user growth in the social and blockchain gaming fields is particularly significant, and the non-fungible token (NFT) market transaction volume reached US$4 billion, but the total locked value (TVL) of decentralized financial applications (DeFi) But it dropped 4%. DappRadar warned that growth could be affected by temporary airdrop activity, stressing the importance of delivering a quality user experience and a robust development roadmap.
▌Baanx: The development of Web3 infrastructure such as account abstraction promotes the adoption of crypto debit cards
In an interview, Simon Jones, Chief Commercial Officer of Baanx, talked about the key role of crypto debit cards in promoting the popularity of cryptocurrencies. Baanx launched the Crypto Life Card with partners such as Ledger, 1inch and Mastercard, allowing users to use cryptocurrencies to spend at 90 million merchants worldwide. The card is currently available in 32 countries and plans to expand to the United States and Latin America.
Jones noted that as fintech and cryptocurrencies converge, the development of Web3 infrastructure such as account abstraction (such as ERC-4337), which enables users to connect multiple funding sources to a single wallet, has driven the adoption of crypto debit cards. He also emphasized the importance of increased self-custody awareness and account abstraction technology in improving the operation of crypto payments and debit cards.
In addition, Baanx’s Crypto Life Card provides flexible asset storage and consumption options, and provides lending services in multiple countries, allowing users to borrow fiat currencies for consumption without liquidating cryptocurrencies. These innovations make cryptocurrencies more suitable for everyday use and are expected to significantly drive market adoption.
▌Report: DePin network may achieve decentralization of law enforcement
Zee Prime Capital released a report stating that the decentralized physical infrastructure network (DePin) can transform law enforcement into a community enterprise and improve transparency. Decentralized security (DeSec) involves building distributed monitoring and law enforcement systems such as ballistic triangulation systems and community patrol decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs).
Author Luffistotle said that blockchain and decentralized architecture excel in security redundancy, and the community is willing to pay extra to ensure the best security. DeSec applications also provide incentives to enhance power infrastructure and protect it from destructive events.
▌Blast has become the seventh largest blockchain network in terms of total locked value
According to DefiLlama data, Blast's total locked-in value has been rising since the launch of the mainnet, and it has now become the seventh largest blockchain network in terms of locked-in value, with an asset size of nearly $1.5 billion. As of mid-June, Blast is ahead of OP Mainnet in terms of transaction volume and the 7-day moving average of active addresses, but still lags behind Arbitrum One and Base.
Cryptocurrency
▌Telegram CEO: Hamster Kombat will issue tokens on the TON blockchain
Telegram CEO Patel Du Rove posted on his personal channel that Hamster Kombat has become the latest Internet phenomenon, with 239 million people registered in just three months. This Telegram mini-app reached 100 million monthly active users in 73 days, with 4-5 million new users every day, making it the fastest growing digital service in the world. Hamster Kombat plans to issue its tokens on the TON blockchain to bring the advantages of blockchain to hundreds of millions of users.
▌The transfer volume of short-term Bitcoin holders has dropped significantly, indicating that the market is stable
Since the 2024 halving, short-term Bitcoin holders have made significantly fewer transfers to exchanges when they lose money, according to Glassnode data. This transfer volume peaked at 90,000 BTC in early 2024, but stabilized below 30,000 BTC after the April halving.
Historical data shows that short-term Bitcoin holders tend to increase transfer activity during major price declines, reflecting panic selling. This trend was particularly evident during the 2018 bear market and the March 2020 COVID-19 crash.
However, after the 2024 halving, the market showed greater stability and investor confidence, with fewer panic transfers. Still, it is important to monitor transfer volume, as its peaks often herald significant price moves and can be a potential indicator of changes in market sentiment.
▌Bitcoin falls below 200-day moving average, bull market cycle questioned
As of July 4, 2024, Bitcoin price fell below its 200-day moving average (DMA), which is currently located at $58,373. This is the first time Bitcoin has fallen below this key technical indicator since August 2023. Since the beginning of 2024, Bitcoin price has been rising, peaking at over $70,000 in March. However, the recent price drop below the 200 DMA suggests that the market may be entering a correction phase.
According to data from Glassnode, Bitcoin’s interaction with the 200 DMA has historically been a reliable indicator of bullish or bearish trends. Typically, a price break above the 200 DMA signals a significant uptrend, while a break below signals a prolonged bear market phase. The current price action warrants caution and could signal the end of the recent bull cycle.
This dynamic suggests that investors need to pay close attention to future price trends as the Bitcoin market adjusts after the halving.
▌Opinion: Bitcoin volatility is expected to continue to decline
With each of Bitcoin’s halvings, its volatility is expected to continue to decline. The next halving is scheduled for 2028, when Bitcoin will become four times more scarce than gold. André Dragosch, head of research at ETC Group, said that as retail and institutional adoption of crypto increases, volatility will structurally decrease over time.
Although the annualized volatility of Bitcoin and Ethereum is currently around 45% to 50%, while the volatility of the S&P 500 is around 15%, the volatility of crypto assets is gradually decreasing. For example, Bitcoin's volatility was as high as 200% in its initial stages, but has recently dropped to 45%. This is mainly attributed to the increased scarcity of Bitcoin, making it more "gold-like".
Dragosch noted that as the diversity of investors increases, the divergence between buyers and sellers will also increase, thus slowing volatility. This trend is expected to continue in the future, especially as crypto assets gain further popularity and adoption. Investors need to understand that where there is growth there is volatility, but this volatility is gradually decreasing.
▌Data shows that the German government still holds more than 40,000 Bitcoins after recent sales
The German government has been selling seized Bitcoin but still holds more than 40,000 BTC, worth more than $2.3 billion, according to blockchain intelligence firm Arkham On-Chain data.
▌SOL falls below $130
The market shows that SOL fell below $130 and is now trading at $129.62, with a daily decline of 7.89%. The market is volatile, so please do a good job of risk control.
Important economic developments
▌The probability of the Federal Reserve keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%
According to CME's "Fed Watch": the probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in August is 91.2%, and the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut is 8.8%. The probability of the Fed keeping interest rates unchanged in September is 27.4%, the probability of a cumulative 25 basis point rate cut is 66.5%, and the probability of a cumulative 50 basis point rate cut is 6.1%.
Golden Encyclopedia
What is Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS)?
DPoS is an evolution of the Proof of Stake (PoS) consensus mechanism designed to provide enhanced scalability, efficiency, and democratic governance. Daniel Larimer proposed the DPoS concept in 2014 as an enhancement to the traditional PoS consensus mechanism designed to improve efficiency and scalability. Larimer first shared his vision in a Bitcointalk forum post, which led to the actual implementation of DPoS and the launch of BitShares in 2015.
Disclaimer: As a blockchain information platform, Golden Finance publishes articles for information reference only and is not intended as actual investment advice. Please establish a correct investment philosophy and be sure to raise your risk awareness.
