Let's talk about bottom fishing
➤ Black swan
There are two types of black swans:
❚ Internal black swan
It is mainly a black swan event that occurs in the blockchain, encryption, and Web3 industries. Typical internal black swans include:
BCH fork computing power war in November 2018.
Luna crash in May 2022.
FTX bankruptcy in November 2022.
❚ External black swan
Epidemic, historical examples are 312 in 2021.
Regulation, historical examples are 94 in 2017 and 519 in 2021.
War, the current example is the Israeli-Palestinian war in April this year.
Of course, there are also mixed black swans, such as Binance being sued by the SEC.
❚ The influence and persistence of black swans
Analyze the influence and persistence of black swans. The greater the influence, the greater the decline may be, and the larger the scale of bottom fishing we should do. For example, the influence of FTX bankruptcy is greater than the Mentougou sell-off that went bankrupt 10 years ago.
The more persistent the black swan is, the more patience we need to wait. For example, the chain reaction caused by the collapse of Luna lasted longer than the Israeli-Palestinian war.
➤Trading volume continues to be sluggish
❚ Trading volume and volatility
Around September last year, the trading volume of the entire crypto market was very sluggish.
At that time, in addition to the sluggish trading volume, the price fluctuations were also very small. BTC fluctuated very little from August to October, and other altcoins (excluding local dogs) did not fluctuate much either.
❚ Several indicators
•Group chat silence/flirting indicator: Everyone in the group is silent, or men and women are not discussing the market and coins, but are flirting, which means the market is really boring.
•Yellow push active indicator: When yellow push is particularly active, it is generally when the market is lackluster.
•Beauty show picture indicator: Beauty bloggers are not only beautiful, but if they continue to post photos, there is no market.
•Blogger analysis indicator: When bloggers are still discussing and analyzing the bottom, it is likely that it is not the bottom yet. When the market bottoms out, bloggers are busy trading or too scared to analyze. (So you understand when you see me still analyzing the bottom-fishing.)
Finally, this article discusses the market, not a specific coin.
In a round of market, more than one black swan may appear. Any desperate behavior is a gamble. Buying the bottom in batches is a more greedy and interesting way to buy than fixed investment.
