Expected trend this year

For the market trend this year, it mainly depends on the following points:

1. Whether the US economy will enter a recession in July and August

If there is an economic recession or a black swan event, this may pave the way for interest rate cuts. However, the so-called "golden pit" may form after the recession, which is the last chance to fall.

2. If there is no recession or black swan

If the economy remains stable until September and enters the pre-election preparation stage, the market may be relatively stable. The next election cycle may keep the market volatile, although liquidity is still low.

Both states will keep the market volatile, and the interest rate cut and election at the end of the year will have an impact on the market and the market.

Simple summary

Election + interest rate cut + no recession = positive

Recession + election + interest rate cut = trough market