July 3 Macroeconomic Data Outlook: US June ADP Employment (10,000 people) Recommended reading: ★★★★

The U.S. ADP employment data for June (10,000 people), commonly known as the "small non-farm payrolls", is provided by the U.S. ADP data company. The data is collected from 500,000 anonymous companies, thus reflecting the situation of the U.S. employment market. However, since it is unofficial data, the data weight is slightly lower than Friday's "big non-farm payrolls", but it is enough to have the expected impact on the market.

Data weight: ★★★★
Data content: Previous value: 152,000, expected: 160,000,
Data time: 20:15, July 3, 2024 (UTC+8)


Data impact:
The current data is expected to be higher than the previous value, which means that the employment situation of private enterprises in the United States in June has improved compared with May. The flexible employment situation will demonstrate the strong and active U.S. economy. At the same time, more employment will reduce the unemployment rate and bring inflationary pressure, which is good for the U.S. economy, the U.S. dollar index and U.S. stocks, and bearish for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.

The data released was greater than expected and greater than the previous value, which was bearish and the crypto market fell.
The data release was in line with expectations, greater than the previous value, which was bearish. The crypto market took a small hit and will not fall immediately. It will wait for Friday's big non-agricultural data and unemployment rate to determine the actual employment data.
The data released was lower than expected, but higher than the previous value, which was bearish. Although the data in June increased compared with the previous month, it was lower than expected. The negative impact was small. It may fluctuate slightly and then go sideways to wait for the data on Friday.
The data released was lower than expected and equal to the previous value, which is positive. The June data was the same as the previous value, and the job market remained stable. At the same time, this will bring more room for imagination for the unemployment rate of 4% in May. The market remained sideways waiting for Friday's data.
The data released is lower than expected, which is a positive sign. If the data for June is lower than the previous value, it proves that the job market continues to cool down, which will lead to the possibility that the unemployment rate in June may continue to deteriorate. The market will see volatility rise, but it will not be too large.

expected:
The current expected number is 16. I personally expect the published value to be in line with the expected 16, with a small probability of being higher than expected. To put it bluntly, the data may be bearish.
The basis is the just-released data on the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in June, which is significantly lower than the previous value. A significant reduction in the number of layoffs will mean more employment opportunities and jobs, which is good for the job market. The same data is from the private enterprise sector, which may cause the ADP data to exceed expectations.

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In fact, Powell's speech last night has already given market data an early anticipation. Although yesterday's speech was generally dovish, he talked about inflation expectations and being cautious about the job market. He also mentioned that the Fed will not take action unless there are unexpected data on the unemployment rate. In other words, unless the job market deteriorates rapidly in the short term and the unemployment rate rises sharply, the Fed's interest rate cut will be intensified. Therefore, if this week's employment data rises, or even the unemployment rate falls, it may be relatively normal. Even if unemployment deteriorates to 4.1%, it is not enough to promote expectations of a rate cut from Powell's perspective.

Of course, the above is an interpretation of Powell’s speech yesterday, and it does not represent an absolute statement. In fact, the market is still very hopeful about a rate cut in September. The current probability of a rate cut in September is 70%. If the non-farm data and unemployment rate continue to deteriorate this week, no matter what Powell says, the probability of a rate cut in September will be greatly increased.

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