Why Avalanche Might Not Hit Its All-Time High During The Next Bull Run!

I saw a couple of posts lately on social media that predicted 200, 300, or even 500 as a price target for $AVAX during the next bull run.

This surprised me. I don't think that AVAX will get even close to those numbers.

To make this very clear, my assumption has nothing to do with the project in general or Avalanche's technology. On the contrary, I am a big fan of Avalanche and think it will be one of the few projects that will exist ten years from now.

I think AVAX won't hit its previous ATH during the next bull run for a simple reason: Circulating Supply!

AVAX marked its ATH in November 2021, when the price peaked at ~145 USD. Based on the circulating supply at that time (~230m), the asset had a market cap of ~33b.

Since 2021, the circulating supply of AVAX has constantly increased. Moreover, it will continue to increase until it reaches its total supply 443m.

Currently, AVAX has a circulating supply of almost 400m. As a result, to reach the ATH price again, AVAX requires a market cap of 58b. That's almost twice the size of its previous ATH market cap.

Although it isn't completely unrealistic, I consider it unlikely that Avalanche will double its market cap compared to the last bull run. But even if I am wrong with this assumption, the numbers show how unlikely prices of 200, 300, or even 500 are.

Just to do the math: A token price of $500 would lead to a market cap of 200b.

Nevertheless, I still think AVAX has a bright feature and solid potential during the next bull run. At the same time, I consider it essential to have realistic targets.