The data in this article comes from Binance’s previous research report. I have extracted some key data to extend my views. The link to the original report will be attached at the end of this article.
🗝Key Points
Opportunity for exponential user growth
The necessity of cross-chain interoperability
Track-level opportunities for RWA
1. The current scale of encrypted users is about 560 million, which is more than halfway to 1 billion users.
However, the user scale here can be said to not be purely on-chain users. Most of them are probably exchange users, and those who have truly experienced on-chain interaction are definitely not the majority.
📍But this trend may change as the leading exchanges launch wallet functions one after another
In addition, in the two development stages of the Internet, it took Facebook and Tiktok 8 years and 5 years respectively to reach 1 billion users, and the speed of large-scale expansion of Internet popular applications is accelerating.
The relatively high on-chain threshold of Web3 is one of the reasons that hinder the exponential growth of the entire industry. With the development of [account abstraction] and [chain abstraction], it is expected to break this deadlock.
At the same time, at the payment level, the current number of crypto users has slightly exceeded that of [Paypal] compared to traditional payment methods, but it is still a long way from the scale of Visa and MasterCard (the distance is about 8-10 times)🔺
However, I think this comparison is not rigorous. After all, the actual use case of encryption in payment must be far less than the total user data...
But it is difficult to talk about the data of encrypted payment systems alone (the data of lightning channels is only for reference);
The original report also lists a very meaningful data: the top 20 L1 chains have nearly 75 million active users, which is only about 13.4% of the 560 million user data previously counted.
As the most important infrastructure of Web3, the number of active users of L1 can reflect the overall basic market of the current industry. From the chart, the number of monthly active users of SOL, Tron and BNB is on par with each other.
(Interestingly, TON was not included in the list in terms of on-chain activity)
But there is a special case: ETH. Due to its own performance defects, the statistical data also needs to include L2. Currently, the largest monthly active data of L2 is slightly less than 20 million. Adding this data to the total data of L1 is only slightly higher than the three ecological spectrums listed above.
2. In this multi-chain split liquidity situation, cross-chain interoperability has become an inevitable development trend
But how to achieve [true chain abstraction] while achieving cross-chain interoperability is of great significance to the exponential growth of users and DAPP growth.
This point was also mentioned in the original report, and the example of#Axelarwas also listed. After the report was issued, I saw that the project seemed to have marketing activities in conjunction with the work. Of course, the content of this article is not the market-oriented content of the project (this is why I delayed it for a few days before issuing it).
3. In the face of the above objective facts, another track-level opportunity that needs to be paid attention to is #RWA
The previous small climax in the Web3 market in this cycle, which was supported by American capital, was an on-chain opportunity brought about by the resurgence of SOL.
The main driving force behind the growth of RWA is some traditional capital, mainly BlackRock (BlackRock BUILD Fund has a market share of about 25% in U.S. debt token products);
The RWA track has achieved a very strong growth trend this year, but this trend seems to be overshadowed by the overall "anti-VC" atmosphere, and this trend is more practical than the combination of Web3 and AI.
Original report link: https://public.bnbstatic.com/static/files/research/road-to-one-billion-on-chain-users.pdf
