Author: Stacy Muur, Web3 researcher; Translation: Golden Finance xiaozou
Messari’s latest crypto research report brings us the main narratives: AI, SocialFi, and Bitcoin’s programmable layer.
Below, we look at key insights into these sectors, noteworthy players and relevant investment considerations.
1、AI x Crypto
The three main layers that AI x Crypto development is currently focusing on are:
Infrastructure layer (such as Akash Network, The Render Network, etc., used for computing training AI models)
AI model layer (such as Allora, bittensor, Ritual, etc.)
Application layer (such as MyShell)
The infrastructure layer is now complete, and the next wave of AI x Crypto protocols is expected to emerge at the model layer. Spectral Token (SPEC) is one of the only liquidity tokens in the category with a circulation level of about 11%.
Given the traditional financing of most model-layer protocols, Messari analysts expect that the circulation level of tokens issued by these protocols should generally be around 10-20%, which will lead to a massive oversupply in the coming months or even years.
Advantages:
There is growing interest from both institutional and retail investors.
Developing in tandem with the field of generative AI.
Potential for integration with SocialFi protocol.
Disadvantages:
Clear demand is needed to avoid market fatigue.
Demonstrate short-term utility and the challenges that come with integration.
2、SocialFi（DeSoc）
Key trends:
Incentive structure: Changing the way traditional social media is monetized by introducing speculation.
Attract creators: incentivize creators to bring in users and generate a speculative value cycle.
Investment considerations:
Excess supply: Prices are generally lower as creators and users receive higher allocations.
Impact and probability of success: Moderate impact, varying likelihood of success.
Market consensus: Mixed, with both high and low valuation views coexisting.
Farcaster has 50,000 daily active users and recently raised funding from Paradigm and a16z at $1 billion FDV (fully diluted valuation).
On the other hand, SocialFi has a lower consensus valuation of $600 million, while friend.tech has a much lower valuation of $80 million.
Advantages:
The incentive flywheel encourages creators and fans to participate.
Because of early tokenization, there is a larger pool of monetizable creators.
Disadvantages:
The speculative value cycle may be interrupted, bringing instability to the market.
Could be exploited by profiteers or attackers.
3. Bitcoin Programmability
Key trends:
Feature additions: Emphasis on adding programmability and modularity support to Bitcoin.
Soft Forks and Upgrades: Explore soft forks for new opcodes and script overhauls.
Investment considerations:
Oversupply: Future protocols may face significant oversupply.
Technical limitations: There are currently limitations in rollup capacity and DA.
Market acceptance: Uncertainty about market demand for a programmable Bitcoin layer.
Advantages:
Unlocking the huge liquidity potential of Bitcoin’s value.
Early successes in the NFT space indicate strong market interest.
Disadvantages:
Technological advances are needed to achieve true rollups.
Balance the needs between network and asset expansion.
