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At 20:30 on Friday night, July 5, the U.S. Department of Labor will announce the non-farm payrolls data for June, which is crucial to predicting the direction of the Fed's policy. Economists predict that although the May data was stronger than expected, new employment in June may slow to 188,000, and the unemployment rate will remain stable at 4%. As U.S. inflation gradually comes under control, if the job market shows signs of fatigue, it may accelerate the pace of the Fed's interest rate cut in September. The market generally expects a nearly 60% probability of a rate cut in September. If the non-farm data becomes weaker, it will further boost expectations of a rate cut.

At the same time, the JOLTS job vacancies and ADP data in early July will provide an early look at the job market trends. In addition, the speeches of Fed Chairman Powell and ECB President Lagarde at the Sintra seminar will focus on the prospects for inflation and interest rate cuts, providing more guidance to the market. The Fed may maintain a cautious attitude and wait for more signs of inflation relief; while the European Central Bank has already started the path of interest rate cuts this year, but the specific rhythm is still uncertain. The market is waiting for the two central bank governors to elaborate on the future policy direction. #非农就业数据即将公布

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