Why is the alt season still so late?
VCs took the gains
This cycle is driven by BTC ETFs
New tokens have high FDV and low circulation
Retail investors have never increased
1/ In previous cycles, everyone had more equitable access to quality projects at an early stage.
But now, all early projects seem to be raising funds privately. Retail investors cannot enter these markets.
Projects will only enter the public market after they have proved their value.
This also means that a large part of the returns have already been captured.
VCs who have already earned 10x returns in private rounds will quickly sell their tokens after the tokens are unlocked. This will create continuous pressure to drive the price down.
2/ This cycle is driven by BTC ETFs, which means that only BTC prices will be driven up.
The alt season is partly driven by investors who switch to other assets after making profits from BTC. But in the case of ETFs, they will not switch their gains to other assets. They will just stay there. What's worse, even institutional fund inflows have slowed down.
3/High FDV and low circulation, as locked tokens enter the market, they exert downward pressure on prices. Since many people only use market capitalization for evaluation, this pattern can give a misleading impression that the token is undervalued. Low circulation tokens are more easily manipulated. The lower the circulation, the less funds are needed to maintain the token at a specific price.
4/ The sharp rise in cryptocurrencies is driven by retail investors investing funds, but the current level of breakthrough is far lower than the peak in 2021.