Is the trend line breakthrough necessarily a market reversal? #BTC走势预测

On the first day of July, Bitcoin broke the weak performance of the whole month of June, began to rebound, and broke through the downward trend line and the bottom oscillation range.

But I don’t think the market will reverse. In the eyes of many people, the trend line is one of the important signals to determine the trend. Breaking the trend line means that the trend has changed.

In my opinion, the trend line can only define the strength of the trend (identify the slope), but not the concern signal of the trend turning point.

I generally observe the changes in highs and lows to judge the trend. In today’s rebound, we can see that although the market has begun to strengthen in a small cycle, the high point of the rebound is still a certain distance from the previous high point, which does not mean that the market has completely strengthened.

The bottom oscillation is only 37 4-hour K lines, which cannot be identified as the turning point before the market reversal. The price rebounded and stagnated at FIB0.382, which can be used as a potential observation pressure level. It is necessary to wait for the US market time to confirm whether it is effective.

Observing the position data again, the last acceleration this morning was driven by short position closing (volume increased and position decreased), and the position volume of the next divergent K-line also decreased, which means that both shorts and profitable longs are closing positions to offset price fluctuations.

It also indirectly shows that the market trend during the day basically ends here, and the bullish sentiment is not as strong as everyone thinks. The rest of the time will be left to the US market to see the movement of US funds. $BTC