July 1-July 5 Macroeconomic Big Data Minutes, This Week's Theme ETF/Non-agricultural
Recommended reading: ★★★★★
(The following timelines are all calculated based on UST+8, please pay attention to the time zone)
July 1-12:
The final review decision of ETH ETF is also the final decision time of Ethereum ETF S-1 document.
Data weight: ★★★★★
Data content:
Data time: July 1st - July 12th,
Data impact:
Ethereum's ETF will be an important independent narrative in the crypto market in the next two weeks, and it will also be the most important event that the crypto market pays most attention to under the current macroeconomic downturn.
According to various sources, there are two controversial points in the Ethereum ETF.
1. Complete and pass before July 4th.
2. May pass during the week of July 8,
The overall focus of the two controversial points is the first and second weeks of July. The specific time cannot be determined so far. We can only say that it is most likely to be passed in these two weeks, so we can only patiently wait for the news of approval which may come at any time on working days.
As for the market reaction, a wave of rise is normal, and there will be random small-scale Sell the news. As for whether it will continue to rise or fall in the future, it depends on the liquidity brought by this good news to the crypto market, and whether the U.S. stock market cooperates with the upward trend.
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July 1:
21:45 Final value of US June S&P Global Manufacturing PMI, previous value 51.7, expected value 51.7
Data weight: ★★
The final value of the US manufacturing situation assessment provided by S&P is used to assess the US manufacturing situation and also reflects the current industrial recovery in the United States.
The index is expected to be the same as the previous value, but it should be noted that the previous value here is the initial value of PMI in June rather than last month. The manufacturing PMI index in May was 51.3. If the data is in line with expectations and the same as the initial value, it proves that the US manufacturing industry is recovering at an accelerated pace, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar and US stocks, but bad for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.
Single data has a weak impact on the crypto market.
22:00 US June ISM Manufacturing PMI, previous value 48.7, expected 49.1,
Data weight: ★★★
Although this data is the same as the S&P Global PMI Manufacturing Index in that both statistics on manufacturing conditions, it is slightly higher than the S&P Global data in terms of data and weight.
The expected value of this data is higher than the previous value, which means that the manufacturing industry is expected to be better in June than in May. Once the announced value is in line with expectations and higher than the previous value, the recovery of the manufacturing industry represents the recovery of the US industry and the improvement of the economy, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar, and US stocks, but bad for the entire risk market's expectations of a rate cut.
However, although industrial manufacturing is a pillar sector in the United States, the current important source of the U.S. economy still comes from the service industry. Therefore, the recovery of manufacturing data will have a relatively small impact on the risk market in the short term, but it can be used to make an assessment based on the overall data in June.
Single data has little impact on the crypto market.
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July 2:
22:00 US May JOLTs job vacancies (10,000 people), previous value 8.059 million, expected 7.864 million,
Data weight: ★★★
The U.S. job vacancies and labor force survey report are important forecasts for next week’s employment data. The data releases job vacancies in May, and through the job vacancies in May, we can make an expectation and analysis of the employment data in June.
The data predicts that job vacancies in May will decrease compared to April. The reduction in jobs may lead to a slowdown in hiring in June, while putting pressure on the unemployment rate, which is likely to continue to deteriorate. This is bearish for the US economy, the US dollar, and US stocks, but bullish for risk market expectations of interest rate cuts.
Single data has little impact on the crypto market, but if the data shows that job vacancies fell in May and the unemployment rate continued to rise in June, it would have a potential positive effect on the market.
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July 3:
19:30 The number of layoffs of challenger companies in the United States in June (10,000 people) was 63,816 before, and the expected value has not been announced yet.
Data weight: ★★
The employment consulting company presented the layoff data for June through a survey of companies in June, but because the data comes from employment companies, the statistical authenticity and limitations of the data are still very large, so the data is basically used for reference rather than as dominant data.
At the same time, the release of this data higher than the previous value will show the US employment market situation from a partially objective perspective, but this data is released 45 minutes before the release of APD employment (small non-farm) and its impact on the market is basically ignored. The key data is still the ADP employment data.
20:15 US June ADP employment (10,000 people), previous value 15.2, expected 15.8
Data weight: ★★★★
This data is the U.S. private sector employment data provided by the U.S. automatic data ADP, which is called "small non-farm" by the market. The data is collected from approximately 500,000 anonymous U.S. companies.
Data expects that the ADP employment data in June will be higher than that in May. The improvement in employment data indicates frequent economic activities, corporate expansion and development, which is good for the US economy, the US dollar and US stocks, and bearish for the risk market's expectations of a rate cut.
A single piece of data will bring certain fluctuations to the crypto market, but the fluctuations will not be too large, because compared with the ADP data, Friday's non-farm data is more authoritative, and ADP is private enterprise data, and in previous employment data, government data is also very important, so its impact is smaller than the non-farm data.
The specific impact on the market will be interpreted in advance on the day the data is released.
20:30 US initial jobless claims for the week ending June 29 (10,000 people) Previous value 23.3 Expected 23.5
Data weight: ★★★
This data directly reflects the number of initial unemployment claims in the short term that week. The data is expected to be higher than the previous value. If it meets expectations, the US job market will decline in the short term.
Single data has little impact on the crypto market and will only cause small fluctuations, but combined with ADP employment data, it may increase the volatility index.
21:45 Final value of US S&P Global Services PMI for June, previous value 55.1, expected 52.3
Data weight: ★★
S&P Global statistics on the activity of the service industry in the United States in June. The initial value of the index is 55.1, and the previous value in May is 54.8. If the data meets expectations, it will be lower than the year-on-year data in May. The decline in service industry activity is bad for the US economy, the US dollar, and US stocks, but good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. Services have always been a problem in inflation, and the decline in the service industry will help control inflation.
Single data has little impact on the crypto market.
22:00 US June ISM non-manufacturing PMI previous value 53.8 expected 52.5
Data weight: ★★★
Compared with the more authoritative statistical data of S&P, the data is expected to be lower than the previous data. If the data is released in line with expectations, it means that the US service industry has cooled down in June and economic activity has decreased, which is bad for the US economy, the US dollar and US stocks, and will slow down the pressure of inflation control, which is good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts.
Single data has little impact on the crypto market.
Among the above data, if the ADP data is relatively stable, the other data will have little impact. The focus should be on the big non-farm data on Friday. If the ADP data is abnormal, the subsequent small data will have the effect of boosting market sentiment.
22:30 U.S. EIA crude oil inventory for the week ending June 28 (10,000 barrels) Previous value 359.1
Data weight: ★★
This data directly shows the domestic crude oil inventory in the United States, which has a more direct impact on crude oil and US stocks, and has a smaller impact on the crypto market. At the same time, this data has a certain impact on the crude oil price in the inflation data, but it is basically weekly data, so it can be used as a record.
Single data has little impact on the crypto market.
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July 4:
02:00 The Federal Reserve releases the minutes of its monetary policy meeting.
Data weight: ★★★★★ /★
The Federal Reserve announced its June monetary interest rate decision. This data has a high weight, but at the current stage, it is known that the market expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the current interest rate in June with a 99% chance, so the impact of this data is set to be short-term★. Of course, a small probability event cannot be ruled out - directly announcing a rate cut. (The possibility is extremely small)
If the interest rate changes, it will have a huge impact on the market. If there is no change, there will be basically no impact.
I will not interpret too much about the British general election. Friends who are interested can learn about it on their own. The impact on the financial market is also quite complicated, and I will interpret it appropriately on the day.
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July 5: The highlight of the week, the timing of macro-emotional game
20:30 US unemployment rate in June, previous value 4%, expected 4%,
Data weight: ★★★★★
This data directly shows the situation of the U.S. job market in June. Since the U.S. unemployment rate hit 4% last month, it has become the biggest driving data for expectations of a rate cut. However, in Powell's speech after the May interest rate meeting, he mentioned that a 4% unemployment rate is within the acceptable range. At the same time, the Federal Reserve believes that a 4% unemployment rate in a single month is not a major factor in driving a rate cut.
If the June data is still likely to remain at 4%, the market will imagine that the unemployment rate will get out of control. If the unemployment rate is likely to get out of control and continue to increase, it will be bad for the US economy, the US dollar, and US stocks, and good for the risk market's expectations of interest rate cuts. However, this will also lead to speculation on expectations of a US recession, which may lead to the possibility of short-term funds seeking safety in the bond market.
Of course, if the unemployment rate is lower than expected or higher than expected, it will bring different market effects. Only the minutes are made here, and a forward-looking interpretation will be made before the data is released on the day.
20:30 US June seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls (10,000 people) Previous value 27.2 Expected 19,
Data weight: ★★★★★
The data on non-agricultural employment in June compiled by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics directly and authoritatively shows the U.S. job market in June. It is commonly known as the "Big Non-Agricultural"
The data currently expects that the non-farm employment population in June will be lower than the previous value. If the data meets expectations, it will prove that the job market has cooled significantly, which also means that companies are hiring less and economic activity is weakening, which is bearish for the US economy, the US dollar, and US stocks, but will help control inflation and be positive for risk market expectations of interest rate cuts.
Single data has a great impact on the crypto market, and a forward-looking interpretation of the data will be made at that time to determine the specific impact on the trend.
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In fact, overall, next week's non-farm data, especially the large non-farm data, may experience large data fluctuations again under the current data expectations. The current large non-farm data is expected to be significantly lower than the previous value. If the data should not be expected on the eve of the release of next week's data, then there are many possible interpretations of this non-farm data that is significantly lower than the previous period.
First, if the non-agricultural employment population drops significantly, the unemployment rate will normally not be able to withstand 4%. If the unemployment rate continues to remain at 4% and the employed population drops significantly, it means that the controversial illegal immigrant labor and part-time issues last month have been effectively adjusted. Once the illegal immigrant data and part-time data are adjusted, the non-agricultural employment data for this month will still be distorted, and the idea of using the employment market to predict the Fed's interest rate cut will be ruined.
I won’t say much here. During the next week, I will actively discuss with my friends and then provide you with forward-looking interpretations before the data is released.
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