The number of active addresses on the chain has also dropped sharply since March. The number of active addresses is now less than 700,000, which has fallen by more than 30% from the peak in 2024 and is almost the same as the same period in 2018. In addition to the sluggish on-chain transactions, the recent performance of Bitcoin spot ETFs has also been relatively weak. As the main channel for the crypto market to obtain external liquidity in the current cycle, Bitcoin spot ETFs are also an important carrier to support the optimistic sentiment in the future market. Previously, JPMorgan Chase estimated that the crypto market has a net inflow of US$12 billion this year, of which Bitcoin spot ETFs have a net inflow of about US$16 billion.
However, since entering June, Bitcoin spot ETFs have experienced net outflows for many days, and have accumulated nearly 20,000 Bitcoins so far, which is about US$1.228 billion at the current price. Such performance is difficult to satisfy investors. The "quiet" handling of the seized Bitcoin by the German and US governments has made the market more tense. Although the above data seems to prove that Bitcoin has fallen into "trouble", there are also many positive signs in the market.
One of the important characteristics of the real top in the past cycles is that the proportion of short-term holders (holding time less than 155 days) has increased significantly, and even dominated the market. This is because in the process of reaching the top, long-term holders will gradually choose to take profits and leave, resulting in the market being controlled by short-term investors and new entrants. However, according to OKLink data, the current Bitcoin market is still dominated by long-term holders, and Bitcoins held for less than 6 months account for less than 20%, which is much lower than the proportion of short-term holders near the top of the previous cycle. This market structure dominated by long-term holders has given Bitcoin a stable support in the current range. At the same time, considering that nearly 80% of the Bitcoins currently in circulation are profitable, most investors are still in a favorable position, so large-scale selling in the short term will not occur in theory. On the other hand, the Bitcoin reserves of exchanges also hit a new low in June. Although it is a low point, the low reserves of exchanges actually send a clear signal that the selling pressure of Bitcoin is not actually high. At the same time, the low reserves of exchanges also indicate that the Bitcoin market is in a period of high-speed accumulation, although we are not completely clear about the group structure of those who take Bitcoin away from exchanges.