The current market problem is the market pessimism caused by fundamentals (declining expectations of interest rate cuts + rising expectations of recession). The main force of the cottage and retail investors are all trampling, causing most cottages to fall sharply. Regarding judging the top and bottom of the market, it is all a prediction of the market. No one is a prophet, and everyone makes judgments based on their own analysis of the market. The right or wrong of the analysis is not important. What is important is whether you dare to bet based on your own judgment, and whether you dare to admit defeat if you are wrong. If you don’t dare to bet when you guess right, is it useful to give you a certificate at the end?

1. This week, the big cake fell to around 58,500 and then closed the needle and started to rebound. From conventional experience, after a long period of downward trend, it is often impossible to reverse like a flash crash in the bull market, but it takes two or even three times to build a bottom effectively before it can be confirmed. The current rebound strength is not good. Whether it is the bottom on the left needs to be observed, and the probability is not high.

2. The government and institutions are constantly selling. Recently, the German government transferred about 5,000 BTC and the US government transferred about 4,000 BTC, and there is a high probability that they are sold. Mt.Gox has started paying out, and about 140,000 BTC will be sold. These countries and institutions may not directly dump all the cryptocurrencies they hold in the market, but will sell them in batches through OTC. But in any case, it will cause a certain degree of selling pressure on the market. When the market is good, the market will fall in response to these actions. Now that the market sentiment is low, it is more like a sword that continues to hang over the market.

3. Politics and monetary policy. The US election is approaching, and the market will bet on the election. Different campaign propositions will be fierce as the election situation changes. The SEC fired at multiple projects and crypto companies, and the Federal Reserve continued to bite its teeth and refused to cut interest rates. Some members even said that they would not cut interest rates this year, which has a suppressive effect on the market. I will not analyze the macro here too much. The interest rate cut is still the main line, and the others are all branches. The spring is almost pressed to the bottom. Either the interest rate cuts are carried out step by step, or the interest rate cuts are cut quickly after the economic recession.

Attached is a picture. The market here is a bit like last March-October. Last year was the halftime break after BTC bottomed out from the decline in 2022 and walked out of the bottom range, and now it is the halftime break after the first half of the bull market. I expect it to fluctuate between 5W5-6W7 for 1-2 months, until the expectation of US interest rate cuts or recession intensifies before choosing a general direction.