Sentiment Figure 1

The crypto market is not good every summer. Last summer was also a copycat bottom, but this year there are more catalysts, and it should not stay below for too long.

Why not open a short position when the signal is bearish Figure 2

Although the current trend is mainly falling, the risk-return of opening a short position in an upward trend is very poor, so we still maintain a low-to-long position, at least when the market value of TOTAL2 remains above $900B. The total market value is in a bullish flag and sideways in an upward trend, and it will not open a short position until it falls out of the upward trend.

Timing Figure 3

Currently, we are mainly waiting for the listing of ETH's ETF in the United States on the 2nd. The listing of Bitcoin's ETF will fall first, but it is when Bitcoin has hit a high. It is hard to say whether the listing of the second cake ETF will fall or rise. Now it is a small bull flag in a big bull flag. We will know only after it is listed.

Position Figure 4

The current position is mainly bought towards the swing bottom of the new cycle. It can be seen that TP1-3 is not 5-10% but 20-200%.

Reverse trading is to place orders at support, and the profit is like a tiger. But the disadvantage is that not all supports can be supported, and it needs to be protected by the upward trend. Unlike the right side order, you have to wait for at least two HL confirmation signals before entering (entering late but the support is more certain, the risk is low but the profit is small).

Currently, some of the new ones are those that have fallen straight down and have little rebound. At least the market should give a dead cat rebound.

We will continue to monitor the market structure and liquidity changes, and adjustments may be more frequent. After the small trend comes back, these positions will slowly start to automatically stop profit.