In the early Asian session on Wednesday (August 23), the US dollar index continued to rebound overnight, reporting at 103.57. Bulls challenged the upward trend, but trading was cautious before the speech of Fed Chairman Powell. The S&P Global PMI made a heavy debut, and the index is expected to remain at 52. Gold has become a helpless loser, falling below $1,900. Technical analysis warns that the trend structure is damaged and downward pressure continues. After the flash crash of Bitcoin, the severe oversold generated by RSI strengthened the V-shaped rebound signal.

Markets remain generally cautious as China's central bank cut interest rates less than expected. On Wall Street, cautious sentiment continued to dominate with the Dow down 0.51%, the S&P 500 down 0.28% and the Nasdaq up 0.06%. Concerns about China, coupled with further downgrades of US banks by Standard & Poor's and expectations of long-term high interest rates, are putting downward pressure on market sentiment.

The annual Jackson Hole symposium, which begins on Thursday, is of great significance, and Fed Chairman Powell will speak on Friday. Ahead of the meeting, U.S. Treasury yields rose slightly to a multi-year high, with the 10-year Treasury yield breaking through 4.30%.

Data released on Tuesday showed that U.S. existing home sales fell 2.2% in July to an annual rate of 4.07 million units, lower than the market expectation of 4.15 million units. The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index rose from -9 to -7 in August, in line with the market consensus.

Wells Fargo analysts offered their thoughts on existing home sales: "The impact of the recent rise in mortgage rates is becoming increasingly apparent, with existing home sales falling 2.2% in July, the second consecutive month of decline. Because existing home sales reflect contract closings, the July data largely reflects activity in June, when mortgage rates averaged 6.8%, but rates have been moving higher since then."

In the US, more housing data will be released on Wednesday, including new home sales. In addition, the S&P Global PMI is expected to be released, with the composite index expected to remain at 52. Ahead of the Jackson Hole Symposium, the main focus remains on central bankers.

EUR/USD initially rose to 1.0930 but then retreated and tested the support at 1.0830. The pair remains under pressure and is approaching the 200-day simple moving average at 1.0799. Eurozone PMI data will be released on Wednesday, with the composite PMI expected to fall from 48.6 to 48.5. Weaker-than-expected data could weigh on the euro. In addition, Eurostat will release preliminary data on consumer confidence for August later in the day.

UK government borrowing was lower than expected at £4.3 billion in July, £3.4 billion more than in July 2022. The budget deficit was £56.6 billion in the April-July period, £11.3 billion less than the Office for Budget Responsibility's 2020 forecast, providing some reason for the government to consider tax cuts.

GBP/USD traded above the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) but later retreated below 1.2750. The pair is consolidating and bullish in the short term. The UK S&P Global/CIPS Composite PMI is expected to decline from 50.8 to 50.3, with services 51.5 to 50.8 and manufacturing 45.3 to 45, both showing contraction.

Gold: Downward pressure persists, trend structure damaged

Bruce Powers, an analyst at FXEmpire, said that downward pressure on gold remains, and it is difficult to rebound from the trend low of $1,885 and continues to show weakness. Gold is still below the 200-day moving average that was broken last week. Tuesday's rebound encountered resistance below the 200-day line, the day's high of $1,904. Subsequently, prices fell. Gold prices look like they will end in the lower half of the day's range, not a sign of strength.

A new concern is a bearish crossover of the 12-day moving average below the 200-day moving average, which happened on Tuesday. The bearish crossover, combined with a weak close after a successful test of 200-day moving average resistance, suggests that selling pressure persists. Of course, this could change soon.

Since gold is still relatively close to the 200-day moving average, it needs to rebound above it and then close above it daily for sustainable bullish signs to appear. The 200-day moving average is currently at $1907, and the 5-day high is also at $1907. Next is last week's high of $1916. In addition, there is a small double bottom reversal pattern at the retracement low, and the relative strength index (RSI) oscillator has fallen back to the same level before the rebound from the first quarter swing low.

During the current correction, the trend structure has suffered some damage. Gold closed below the lower rising trendline as well as the 200-day moving average for several days. In addition, the closing price was below the last swing level since June at $1,893. A break below today's low of $1,889 is a sign of weakness and could test the recent support level.

Trend low support is located at $1885 and if gold breaks below this level then it could move into one of three potential support areas. The first price area is around $1893, followed by a more significant price area between $1871 and $1864, and then $1839 to $1834, with the two lower areas originating from the confluence of multiple Fibonacci levels.

Bitcoin shows signs of V-shaped rebound

Michaël van de Poppe, founder and CEO of crypto trading firm 8, pointed to the severe oversold signal generated by the RSI, which is below 19 on the 12-hour timeframe, close to the lowest level since the bottom of the bear market in 2018. The daily level is similar, reaching the lowest level since the cross-market crash of the COVID-19 pandemic in March 2020.

“Every time we see a move like this, there is some kind of V-shaped recovery and it finds balance at a higher level,” Van de Poppe said of previous Bitcoin price crashes.

He added that Bitcoin is “likely” to stage a comeback, with an eye on $26,500 or higher.

“The current price action in Bitcoin reminds me of September 2020, just before the last bull run began,” crypto analyst Jelle suggested alongside a comparison chart.

“Over a period of time, absorbing and slowly working your way higher, I could see similar results.”