Bitcoin market analysis
The previous article made some unreliable speculations about the market, please see "Qingmei Zhubi: Where is Bitcoin in the cycle? Make an unreliable speculation!" for details.
Today continues to be unreliable.
On June 22, an article titled "Qingmei Zhubi: Bitcoin fell below the long-short balance point" was published, which specifically mentioned that the three-day line of CME BTC futures formed a bearish three crows candlestick pattern, and then ushered in a round of larger declines. The current moving average is suppressed, and there is still no sign of stopping the decline, as shown in the figure.
The cost price of short-term holders (Short-Term Holder Realized Price) has risen to 64,500 and is still rising slightly every day. This is an important pressure point for future rebounds.
The monthly line will also close in the negative, and the weekly and 3-day lines are not optimistic. On the other hand, the market has fallen for 22 days, and there has been no rebound like this. The probability of a rebound is also increasing. So what will be the trend in the future? Here is an unreliable guess, as shown in the figure.
1. Wave 5 is downward. It is currently uncertain whether the 4th wave has been completed. It is still possible to create a new low in the future.
2. The market is approaching the rising trend line since 26,000.
3. The market is approaching the daily MA200 moving average.
4. Therefore, if there is a new low, the range may be between $57,000 and $58,000.
5. Will the fifth wave fail and not create a new low? This is indeed possible. Since the daily bottom divergence has been confirmed, 58400 is not ruled out as the bottom, but I think the probability of a new low is relatively high. One is that the big cycle has not yet stabilized, and the other is that the long-short ratio is too high, and retail investors have a strong intention to buy the bottom. It is necessary to further explode the high leverage to facilitate a rebound.
Operational suggestions:
Those who are short can consider taking profit.
If the market can reach the 57000 - 58000 range, spot positions can be established.
