During the decline of Bitcoin, each of us will feel more or less uncomfortable because everyone is worried about whether the bull market is over.
Xia Sen once judged the starting point and the end point of the bull market. If the bull market really ends, I may not buy at the bottom in the next one or two years. I will only be bearish, just like I was bearish in 2021 until the end of 2022.
If the decline during the bull market lasts for more than one or two months and the Bitcoin price drops by more than 20% to 30%, I would generally consider this to be the limit.
Compared with a few years ago, the fundamentals and volume of Bitcoin are no longer the same. With the support of many listed companies, spot ETFs, and some countries, its security and stability will only become higher and higher.
In the long run, major Bitcoin holders are still in the accumulation stage.
However, the price of Bitcoin has been falling for more than half a month, but it is still within a limited limit.
So who is selling it?
1. Bitcoin miners are selling.
Miners are collectively the upstream and supply side of Bitcoin. Even in a bear market, if the company encounters cash flow difficulties, they will choose to sell in appropriate amounts.
Since the Bitcoin halving, Bitcoin miners have been the most affected, with higher costs, so their sell-off is almost foreseeable and reasonable.
2. Grayscale gbtc is on sale!
In the last round of Bitcoin, due to a special mechanism, the Pi Xiu institutions could only buy but not sell, so the cost was relatively low.
After the ETF is approved, it can be sold, and its customers will naturally have the selling demand.
From more than 600,000 coins to less than 280,000 coins, Grayscale sold nearly 20 billion US dollars in two months.
However, these bitcoins are not sold to retail investors, but are taken over by other ETFs.
Grayscale's buying and selling power is now close to balance, and there has even been an inflow in recent days.
3. Law enforcement agencies of various governments.
Among the Bitcoin whales, there are many government agencies.
Last year, the UK seized 60,000 bitcoins in a fraud involving a Chinese woman.
German authorities seized more than 50,000 bitcoins in January this year.
The United States has seized the most illegal bitcoins, among which the more than 50,000 seized from Silk Road are more famous.
Many countries will not sell the seized bitcoins immediately because the sale must wait until the case is concluded, and many countries will keep these bitcoins as reserves.
But recently, the United States and Germany have begun to transfer out frequently, suspected of selling.
Germany has transferred nearly 5,000 bitcoins in batches in the past ten days.
An address marked as US transferred 4,000 bitcoins yesterday.
4. Potential sell-off in Mentougou.
Over the past decade, the sell-off of Bitcoin in Mentougou has never stopped speculation and has always affected the market.
It is reported that Mentougou has 140,000 bitcoins. The repayment work will start in July and will be carried out gradually. The specific time is uncertain. The compensation is based on the price of bitcoin at the time of occurrence.
News about Mentougou appeared at the end of May. On June 22, the day when the compensation date and plan were determined, Bitcoin fell to around 58,000.
During this period, there were outflows from ETFs, but I personally feel that retail investors sold more.
Therefore, the negative news from Mentougou can partially eliminate the impact and has been digested. When the specific events occur, there will definitely be impacts, but they are all short-term impacts and just turnover.
On the day when the price dropped to 58,000, many retail investors sold their shares at a loss and the sentiment in the market was very bad. At the same time, the ETFs also began to turn around that day, from outflows to inflows, and some large investors even took advantage of the situation to accumulate more than 7,000 bitcoins.
From the above description, we can see that in this round of decline, the main sellers are ETFs and some institutions, the volume is very small and the duration is very long. However, the same group of institutions, when the price was 65,000-72,000, they were net inflows. I personally regard this small but long selling behavior as a symbolic control behavior that affects market sentiment.
As for the selling by Mentougou and some law enforcement agencies, the impact it will cause will only be short-term or turnover.
There is also the selling by retail investors, which is completely due to passive emotional influence.
Relevant data shows that the holdings of exchanges have been decreasing since the beginning of this year, and the holdings of miners have also decreased by tens of thousands of coins.
Other data shows that holders who control at least 0.1% of the total supply of Bitcoin have increased by 7,130 bits, indicating that Bitcoin holdings are more concentrated.
The intuitive feeling given by these two data is that retail investors are gradually handing over their chips, while large investors are still accumulating.
From a rather peculiar perspective, the Bitcoin market is worth trillions of dollars, but the market activity and transaction depth are far from matching.
For example, I saw a survey a few days ago, which said that with the current trading depth of several major exchanges, if no new purchases are added, hundreds of millions of dollars will create a huge pit.
So those big investors who are still accumulating Bitcoin are betting that the Bitcoin market will be bigger in the future, the bull market will last longer, the possibility of steady growth will be higher, and the risk will be lower.
Otherwise, if we are not optimistic about the long term and there are problems with the mechanism, there will be a stampede and no one can escape.
Based on this, the accumulation and development of Bitcoin, and how long the future bull market will last, actually have a certain degree of certainty.
Therefore, after institutions and ETFs enter the market, the end of Bitcoin’s bull market will be accompanied by a huge release of volume, a huge increase in off-market liquidity, and a sufficiently long period of time.
You can pay close attention to these indicators. We are definitely still a long way from achieving them.
One day, when interest rates are lowered, money is released, and big funds come in and last long enough, we need to consider that the bull market may end at any time.
I think it's at least a year away.
Of course, all the above analysis is based on Bitcoin. #币安合约锦标赛 $BTC
