Over the past week, the market has continued to adjust deeply and is now stabilizing. Has the opportunity to buy at the bottom appeared?
Recently, the United States has significantly raised its deficit expectations, which reflects the intention of fiscal policy to support the economy. It is expected that the restart of fiscal efforts will further support market liquidity and the real economy, and the urgency and magnitude of interest rate cuts may be reduced. Affected by the performance of US stocks, Bitcoin rebounded after falling below $60,000 this week, while the performance of altcoins continued to be weaker than that of value coins.
Macro environment
Recently, US consumption and real estate data have been weak. Although the non-farm data in May was higher than Bloomberg's expectations (the same below), the broad employment data showed signs of further weakening. Corporate investment continued its recent improvement trend. Overall, the growth momentum of the United States has cooled down, but it still maintains a certain degree of resilience.
The deficit for fiscal year 2024 is expected to reach $1.9 trillion, which is roughly the same as the $1.86 trillion figure announced by the White House Office of the Treasury (OMB). The restart of fiscal efforts will further support market liquidity and the real economy, and the urgency and magnitude of interest rate cuts may weaken, which greatly affects the market situation.
Affected by the Mentougou sell-off, the price of Bitcoin (BTC) continued to be under pressure this week, with altcoins falling even more. The continued rise of the US dollar index put Bitcoin at risk of falling. The Bitcoin panic index also continued to fall from 70 and entered the fear range from greed.
Since long-term high interest rates may bring greater financial turmoil, we need to pay close attention to the possible amplification of volatility in the future.
High-quality tracks that have the opportunity to run in the near future
Curve Section
Curve still holds the best position for large-scale stablecoin transactions, and generates a steady stream of profits for the project. However, the narrative is too old, and there are no new products or operations that excite the market, which leaves the project with insufficient imagination and prospects. After the liquidation, the market continues to be pessimistic about its development.
Reasons for bargain hunting
On the one hand, many whales bought CRV at a price higher than $0.3, and the current price is in an absolutely reasonable range. On the other hand, Curve's profitability has not been damaged and it will continue to generate cash flow.
Ethereum Blue Chip Project
The ETH spot ETF is expected to be approved by the SEC on July 4. This news has a significant need to repair market sentiment. The ETH spot ETF means that more institutional investors can enter the market more conveniently, which is expected to push up the price of the currency.
ETH-related blue-chip assets will be able to achieve a greater winning rate. Blue-chip assets usually have higher market value and stronger market trust. Therefore, when market sentiment improves, such assets tend to rebound faster and achieve higher returns.
Coins to watch
ENS: ENS is a distributed, open and scalable naming system based on Ethereum, which is extremely popular in Europe and the United States. ENS is planning a Layer 2 network, which may push its price to a higher level.
Ethena (ENA): Ethena is a decentralized finance (DeFi) platform. Ethena is expected to have a second round of airdrops, which will continue to attract capital inflows.
Later, I will bring you analysis of leading projects in other tracks. If you are interested, you can click to follow. I will also organize some cutting-edge consulting and project reviews from time to time. Welcome all like-minded people in the cryptocurrency circle to explore together.
