#PCE数据 🔥🔥🔥

《PCE data coming: the life and death speed of investment decisions》

PCE is the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index, which is the inflation measurement indicator favored by the Federal Reserve.

At 20:30 Beijing time on June 28, the U.S. Department of Commerce will release the U.S. PCE price index for May. According to Dow Jones's forecast, the overall PCE month-on-month growth rate is expected to be the same as last month, the first time since November 2023; the year-on-year growth rate of core PCE (excluding volatile food and energy prices) may hit a new low since March 2021. The specific data forecast is: the overall PCE is expected to grow by 0% month-on-month, up 0.3% in April; the core PCE is expected to rise by 0.1% month-on-month, slowing from 0.2% in April; the year-on-year growth rates of both the overall PCE and the core PCE are expected to slow to 2.6%.

If the market's forecast for the core PCE comes true, it will be of great significance. Since the US core PCE index exceeded the 2% inflation target for the first time in this economic cycle in March 2021, inflation has soared, and the Federal Reserve has made a series of aggressive and large interest rate hikes, but the index has not yet been pulled back below the 2% target. If the core PCE data in May rises in line with expectations, it will be a key milestone on the road to cooling US inflation.

Market expectations for the Fed's rate cuts are also affected by the PCE data. Although the inflation rate has fallen sharply from the peak in mid-2022 since the Fed began raising interest rates in March 2022, Fed officials are not ready to declare victory and are cautious about the timing and speed of rate cuts. The current trend of the futures market shows that the Fed is likely to cut interest rates by 25 basis points for the first time in September and cut interest rates again before the end of this year. However, there is also a view that if there is no unexpected sharp decline in spending or inflation, the Fed is unlikely to cut interest rates at its next meeting in July. The Fed's decision still needs to be based on more data to determine whether it has enough confidence to implement interest rate cuts. #美联储何时降息？ #PCE数据 #PCE物价指数