Crypto market maker GSR Markets has predicted a massive rise in #Solana (SOL) price following the approval of a spot Solana ETF in the United States. Stating that the price of SOL could increase nine times in the "blue sky" scenario, the company announced that it expects a 1.4 times increase even in the "bear" scenario. These predictions became even more remarkable when VanEck unexpectedly filed for a spot Solana ETF.

The Big Three of Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin, Ethereum and Solana

In GSR Markets' June 27 report, Solana was described as part of the "crypto space's big three." Accordingly, Solana's potential to become the next spot cryptocurrency ETF to receive regulatory approval in the USA was examined. This analysis caused a stir in the industry when VanEck filed for a spot Solana ETF the same day. According to GSR's estimate, spot Solana ETFs could capture 14% of the market flows experienced since the launch of spot Bitcoin ETFs in January.

According to GSR's optimistic scenario, Solana's current price of $149 could rise above $1,320, bringing the market value of the cryptocurrency to $614 billion. The company predicted that even in more realistic scenarios, price increases could be 1.4 times and 3.4 times. It was stated that if stake rewards were included, these estimates could be even higher. However, not allowing staking in approved spot Ethereum ETFs may limit this potential increase.

Some Viewed GSR's Estimates with Skepticism

Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas and many other analysts are skeptical of GSR's optimistic forecasts. They argue that major regulatory changes, such as a new US President and a different SEC Chairman, are necessary for the spot Solana ETF to gain serious consideration. Current SEC Chairman Gary Gensler's labeling of the SOL token as a security and lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase complicate the approval process.

VanEck's spot Solana ETF application comes just a week after cryptocurrency asset manager 3iQ filed for a similar ETF in Canada. It remains unclear whether large companies such as Franklin Templeton, which has praised the Solana ecosystem, will apply for spot Solana ETFs in the future.

Globally, publicly traded Solana-based products are currently valued at over $1 billion. This international attention is notable as it demonstrates Solana's growing recognition and potential in the cryptocurrency market. However, this makes the future of a spot Solana ETF in the US uncertain, as the path to regulatory approval remains fraught with challenges. However, since it has been brought to the agenda, I think it may eventually receive approval.