Heavy data released late at night! Good news from the Federal Reserve, will Bitcoin be stable in July?
Tonight, the United States announced the final value of the PCE price index in the first quarter of 3.7%, which was estimated to be 3.6% and revised to 3.6%. The GDP in the first quarter was 1.4% month-on-month, which was estimated to be 1.4%. Neither of these two values exceeded expectations, so it will not hinder the process of interest rate cuts at the end of the year.
In addition, another Fed official, Bostic, spoke and said: There may be a rate cut in the fourth quarter of this year. It is expected that there will be four quarterly rate cuts in 2025, each of 25 basis points. It is hoped that before the first rate cut, it will be "absolutely certain" that the inflation rate will return to 2%, which should be regarded as the first step in a series of rate cuts.
As soon as the news came out, Bitcoin broke through $62,000, and Ethereum rose by 2%, but then Bitcoin fell below $62,000 again, which shows that the market believes that this news is good, but not much good.
I am optimistic about the market in July. I have analyzed it for you before. In the history of Bitcoin, the probability of rising in July is 63.64%, and only in 2015 and 2017, it fell. In other years, July rose.
In addition, July is a policy window month, and it is not easily affected by news and policies.
Tomorrow morning is the first speech and debate between Trump and Biden. I personally prefer Trump. First, he is more topical and has his own Meme attribute. Second, he is more supportive of cryptocurrency. Let's wait and see tomorrow morning.
Okay, I will share it here tonight. I hope everyone will pay attention. I have been writing original works for two months and have received support from many friends. Your attention is my motivation to stick to it. Thank you again!
#美国PCE数据将公布 #美联储何时降息？ $BTC
