Source: bitcoinist
Compiled by: Blockchain Knight
One analyst explained the historical adoption curve for when BTC could grow enough to rival the U.S. dollar (USD).
In a new article on X, analyst Willy Woo discusses the recent expectations of the financial community for the original Crypto asset. He mentioned that “the financial community now considers BTC to be a rapidly emerging asset class. However, the total market value of the token is only around $1.2 trillion at present.”
The analyst noted that asset classes are often valued in "tens of trillions."
Woo believes that this anticipation around BTC means that the financial community believes three things: BTC will grow at least tenfold from now (breaking the $10 trillion market cap mark), rival the U.S. dollar in size, and become a reserve asset.
But when will these expectations be realized? To make an estimate, analysts refer to the "adoption" curve of Crypto assets. Below is a chart shared by Woo, comparing BTC's adoption rate with that of the Internet.
The values on this adoption curve are related to the percentage of the global population that currently uses the asset. Woo aggregated all known research on BTC and crypto asset adoption to determine the curve.
A few prominent examples include Glassnode’s clustering of addresses into “entities” (each entity represents an investor that controls a certain number of addresses), and Cambridge Analytica’s data on exchange users.
As can be seen from the chart, the number of BTC users is equivalent to about 4.7% of the current world population.
If BTC follows the internet’s S-curve, it’s possible that it’s still in the early stages. If so, then the number of users of the asset will accelerate from here.
Now, how much adoption will crypto assets need to rival the dollar? Woo believes that will happen when the curve enters the 25% to 40% area, which could be in 2030.
It remains to be seen how the adoption curve of BTC will develop in the coming years and whether it will resemble what is seen on the internet.
