On June 24, the manager of the refund from the Mt.Gox crypto exchange, Nobuaki Kobayashi, announced the start of payments in early July. The total amount of funds that will be distributed among former clients is 162.1 thousand #BTC for $10 billion.
Traders are betting on Bitcoin to fall further.
The reaction is quite natural, since a potential $10 billion from the sale side can have a significant negative impact on quotes. It took American spot ETFs three months to raise a similar amount. The price of the cryptocurrency during this time increased by 71% to $72.8 thousand. Now the most cautious investors rushed to the exit, fearing a collapse.
âŒïž However, not everything is so clear-cut.
â¶ïžFirst, the maturity date is October 31. If the payments are not made all at once, but are evenly distributed over four months, they will amount to $2.5 billion. Long-term whales and crypto funds sold about the same amount in June.
â¶ïžSecondly, not all of the 162 thousand BTC will immediately enter the market. It is possible that some former clients will hold on to the coins in anticipation of further growth.
â¶ïžThirdly, the pressure from sales will be offset to some extent by new demand. For example, the world's largest public holder, MicroStrategy, bought 11.9 thousand BTC on June 20 for $786 million. Its total portfolio now includes 226.3 thousand BTC worth $14 billion with an average purchase price of $37 thousand.
â¶ïžFourthly, we should not forget about the halving, which reduced the estimated annual coin issue by 164 thousand BTC. Its long-term effect completely covers Mt.Gox payments.
The extent of Bitcoin's correction depends on the Mt.Gox distribution schedule (details are still being disclosed), the willingness of those affected to lock in profits, and the market's reaction to the news. In the long term, however, this event is not expected to have a noticeable effect.
