๐Hold on to your hats, BTC enthusiasts! Bitwise, a leading crypto asset manager, has made a bold prediction: Ethereum spot ETFs will rake in over $15 billion in net inflows within their first 18 months on the U.S. market! ๐
๐กBitwise CIO Matt Hougan based this estimate on Bitcoin's ETF figures and compared Ethereum to the overall size of Bitcoin's market. Currently, Bitcoin's market cap stands at a whopping $1.26 trillion, compared to Ethereum's $432 billion, implying a 3:1 asset ratio.
๐Of that Bitcoin, $56 billion is locked within U.S. Bitcoin ETFs, which Hougan expects will rise to $100 billion by the end of 2025. "By this logic, spot Ethereum ETPs will need $35 billion in AUM to reach parity," he argued.
๐However, this figure doesn't imply $35 billion of inflows. Grayscale's Ethereum Trust (ETHE) will immediately convert into an ETF at launch day with $10 billion from its outset, reducing the estimate for ETF flows to $25 billion.
๐The proportional differences between Bitcoin and Ethereum ETP sizes in other jurisdictions are almost identical. In Europe, Bitcoin ETPs hold โฌ4.6 billion to Ethereum's โฌ1.3 billion. In Canada, Bitcoin ETPs control CAD 4.9 billion, while Ethereum-based funds own CAD $1.4 billion.
๐ฎAssuming a conservative ratio 78% BTC, 22% ETH as seen in Europe, this puts Hougan's estimate down to $18 billion for Ethereum ETF inflows. After correcting for the Bitcoin ETF market's "carry trade," the estimate drops to $15 billion.
๐ฐWith $15 billion of inflows, the Ethereum ETF would be a historic success. "ETH is one of the best-performing assets of all time, and in my honest opinion its best days are ahead of it," Hougan concluded. So, keep your eyes peeled, BTC lovers! The crypto world is full of surprises! ๐ข