According to PANews, the market showed rare caution towards risky assets this week. The largest ETF tracking Bitcoin saw its worst outflow ever, U.S. stocks recorded their worst year-end decline ever, and U.S. Treasury volatility increased, indicating that concerns about Trump's policies and their impact on inflation have awakened the hedge market. Next week's non-farm payrolls report will play a central role in influencing market sentiment. Here are the key points that the market will focus on in the new week:
At 22:30 on Monday, Federal Reserve Board Governor Lisa Cook will give a speech;
At 23:00 on Tuesday, the US December ISM non-manufacturing PMI and the US November JOLTs job vacancies;
Wednesday 21:15, US December ADP employment data;
At 03:00 on Thursday, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes of its December monetary policy meeting;
At 20:30 on Thursday, the number of layoffs by challenger companies in the United States in December;
At 21:30 on Friday, the U.S. unemployment rate in December and the U.S. seasonally adjusted non-farm payrolls in December will be released.
Next week, the US will release several labor market data, starting with the Jolts job openings data on Tuesday, followed by the ADP employment data on Wednesday and finally the non-farm data on Friday. It is worth noting that the December non-farm data is the first report in several months that is not affected by one-off factors. UBS expects the number of new US jobs in December to be close to the recent average and continue to show a gradual cooling of the labor market, providing room for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates further. Given the current market pricing, strong labor data is unlikely to lead to further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, while weak data may make the market consider further interest rate cuts. But US data is unlikely to weaken the US dollar index at this stage.