Is Bitcoin Entering a Bear Market? CryptoQuant Issues a Warning!
Recently, analysts at CryptoQuant have discovered some concerning signals through on-chain data, indicating that Bitcoin may be at the beginning of a bear market. While pullbacks in Bitcoin are not uncommon during a bull market, the current valuation indicators suggest that this adjustment could be deeper than before.
CryptoQuant's analysts found some troubling signals in the on-chain data. For instance, the Bitcoin bull-bear cycle indicator is currently at the most bearish level of this cycle, and the Z-score of the market value to realized value (MVRV) ratio has fallen below the 365-day moving average. This indicates that Bitcoin’s upward momentum has weakened.
Moreover, Bitcoin's demand is also contracting, and the pace at which whales are accumulating has slowed. Last week, Bitcoin's demand plummeted at the fastest rate since July 2024, dropping by 103,000 BTC in one go. It's not just the whales; the annual accumulation rate of other large investors has also significantly decreased, from 368,000 BTC in January to 268,000 BTC now.
What's more concerning is that U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now become net sellers of BTC, in stark contrast to the frenzied buying seen during the same period last year. So far this year, these ETFs have only bought about $700 million worth of BTC, whereas last year around this time, they bought $8.7 billion. This adds additional downward pressure on Bitcoin's price.
Additionally, the number of BTC flowing into the largest U.S. cryptocurrency exchange, Coinbase, from other platforms has also fallen below the 90-day moving average. Since February 13, Coinbase has been in a price adjustment period, when BTC was approximately $96,000. Typically, when demand is high, BTC flows into Coinbase, but the situation has reversed now.
CryptoQuant's analysts also mentioned that if BTC cannot maintain the support level between $75,000 and $78,000, the price could drop to $63,000. As of the time of writing, BTC is priced at $83,400, while $63,000 is the lowest on-chain realized price range for traders.
Do you think Bitcoin has entered a bear market? Will Bitcoin rebound or continue to decline in the coming weeks? At this moment, would you choose to buy the dip or continue to wait and see?
#比特币 #熊市预警 #CryptoQuant #MVRV