The behavior of the markets in each quarter

Q1: New beginnings and the famous 'January effect'
The first quarter marks the beginning of the fiscal year. Investors arrive with renewed optimism and adjust their portfolios after the previous year's closures. January can be bullish due to the 'January effect', when assets tend to rise due to the influx of new capital. However, as the quarter progresses, that initial enthusiasm may moderate, and markets show some stability towards February and March.

Simple and Effective Strategy for Beginners in Trading: Fibonacci + RSI + CHoCH + BOS

This strategy is simple, practical, and easy to understand, ideal for any trader, especially if you are just starting. The key is to correctly identify the trend, wait for confirmations, and trade with patience. It is a strategy I have developed over time, and if you follow it closely, it can have a good success rate. Remember: success in trading lies in knowing how to wait for the best opportunities.

When Dopamine Takes Control in Trading 🎢

Has this happened to you? You're in front of the chart, with your zones and areas perfectly marked, but the price starts to fall more than expected. Instead of sticking to your strategy, you feel that need, that almost uncontrollable urge to buy.

"This is how I average my costs," you tell yourself.

"It's a good opportunity," you try to convince yourself.

You make the purchase and, for a moment, feel a release of dopamine. A sense of relief, even victory, washes over you. But then, the market continues to fall, and that same purchase that seemed like a good idea turns into pain, frustration, and regret.

Learning to Identify Key Assets Before Major Movements 📊

Something I have noticed over time is that, before the general market has a strong movement, whether it's a drop or a rise, some coins or assets show leading behaviors. They seem to act as early indicators of what might come for the rest of the market. But here’s the challenge: how to identify which are those relevant coins or assets?

The behavior before strong drops 🛑

The Importance of a Good Setup for Trading

Now that after a couple of years I am changing offices/work areas, I remembered that when I started trading, my "workspace" was simply my laptop in any corner of the house. Sometimes at the dining table, other times on the sofa. But over time, I realized something: trading is not just numbers and charts; it is also the environment in which you operate. And having an appropriate setup is not a luxury, it's a tool that makes a difference in your performance.

The Market is Falling: Is Fear Here Again? 🌪️

The market is falling, and that familiar fear reappears. Has it happened to you? It’s that feeling of uncertainty, wanting to guess if this time will be different, if the fall is over or if there is still more to come. But let me tell you something: this is the moment when your strategy and mindset are put to the test.

Correction and Fear: A Constant Test 🧘

When the market falls, it's easy for emotions to take control. The charts that once seemed clear are now filled with doubts, the indicators you once trusted seem to fail, and all that remains is fear. It's normal to feel it, but this is where your preparation comes in.

Cryptocurrencies I'm saving in for the long term: my bet for 2030
(In addition to #BTC)
Since I started in the world of trading and investments, I have always been clear that some cryptocurrencies are not just assets to trade, but real projects with the potential to transform entire industries. That is why I have decided to save and invest for the long term in a selection of cryptocurrencies that I firmly believe will last over time and that have strong institutional participation. These are the cryptocurrencies that I plan to hold, at least, until 2030.

The importance of diversifying your presence across multiple exchanges and brokers
One of the best decisions I've made in my journey as a trader and investor has been to register with a wide variety of cryptocurrency exchanges and stock and futures brokers. I am currently registered, active, and diversified in over 100 exchanges, including wallets, meaning all the places where I have assets. While it may seem excessive to some, I will explain why I believe this strategy is essential for understanding and making the most of financial markets.

Accepting your decisions in trading: the power of responsibility
In trading, there is something that no one tells you at the beginning, but that completely defines your long-term success: you are the only one responsible for your results. Winning or losing, being right or wrong, every trade you make is the result of your own decisions. And accepting this is both a challenge and a liberation.

I remember when I started, and every time a trade didn’t go as expected, I looked for someone to blame. The market? The news? The indicator that gave me a false signal? But the truth is this: the market owes you nothing, and the only person you owe an explanation to is yourself.

Trading and Daily Life: More Connections Than You Think 💡

Sometimes, we think that trading is just charts, candles, and quick decisions. But if you look closely, trading has many lessons applicable to our daily lives. In the end, the skills you need to succeed in the markets are the same ones that will help you face life's challenges. Let me explain with some examples:

1. Patience is a powerful tool 🕰️

In trading, waiting for the right zone to enter is key. You can't rush because the market doesn't move according to your impatience. The same goes for life.

The Logic of Whales: Understanding the Big Players in the Market 🐋
In the world of cryptocurrencies, we always hear about 'whales' or 'institutional investors,' those big players who seem to pull the strings of the market. Most of us, as retail traders, feel we are at the mercy of their moves. But here is an important reality: they are not thousands of people, not millions of individuals, but a few dozen actors who operate similarly, following cycles that repeat over and over.

How I analyze #BTC in various Time Frames
1D, 4H, 45min
First, I want to show you my approach to analyzing the BTC market using different time frames: the Daily, the 4 Hour, and the 45 Minutes. My idea is to teach you my way of thinking and what details I observe at each time level so that you can understand how they relate to each other and make more accurate trading decisions.

1. Daily Frame (D1):

In the daily, my goal is to have a macro view, understand the overall market structure and the prevailing trend. Here I seek to identify key levels of support and resistance, areas of imbalance (FVG - Fair Value Gaps), as well as possible formations of Japanese candlesticks that may indicate a change or continuity of trend. I also usually apply Fibonacci retracements over wide movements, as in this frame they work well to mark areas of high confluence. Additionally, I observe the position of slower moving averages (for example, the 27-period average in daily) to understand if the price is in a bullish, bearish, or sideways phase.

How to Analyze a Chart in Simple Steps 🧐📊

When I start analyzing a chart, no matter how much volatility it has, I always follow the same steps because the key is in the structure of the market. Here I explain it in a simple and direct way:

Step 1: Identify the trend 📈📉

Is it going up? Then we are in an uptrend.

Is it going down? It is a downtrend.

Is it moving sideways? The market is in range.

This is the first step, because before any decision, you need to know where the price is standing.

Weekly/Daily Analysis #BTC

Bullish Scenario: If BTC closes above $100,000 during the week, we could confirm a significant breakout from this psychological resistance. In this context, I speculate that the price has a high probability of continuing to consolidate its bullish trend, aiming for Fibonacci levels at $112,000-$129,000. This movement would be supported by a potential bullish order block in the $100,000 area, which could act as a key support for future impulses.

Hello, I hope you have a great day. I'm sharing how I see the market this week; I speculate a bullish start, although I must point out that, from a technical perspective, in the daily, weekly, and monthly frames, the price of BTC is at overbought levels.

I do not base all my probabilities on indicators, as they reflect the past behavior of the market. I know that at any moment, large participants can inject or withdraw capital significantly, altering expected movements. However, I observe certain historical patterns: the price tends to behave cyclically over the years, although currently the big difference is that BTC is at very high levels, while most altcoins, with a few exceptions, remain lagging at low levels.