➡️ Technical Analysis:
Bitcoin is currently consolidating within a range, gearing up for its next upward move. It is approaching a key resistance level, while a critical support level remains intact. As long as Bitcoin does not close a daily candle below this support, the bullish trend remains strong.
Repeated tests of the resistance have weakened it, increasing the likelihood of a breakout. If Bitcoin manages to close a daily candle above this resistance, we could see it targeting $110K and $125K.
➡️ Fundamental Analysis:
The next few weeks could be pivotal for Bitcoin, with two major events to watch:
1. December 18 – Fed Interest Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to announce a 25 basis point rate cut. This development would be highly bullish for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market. A rate cut could act as a catalyst for Bitcoin to break through its resistance and push higher.
2. January 20 – Donald Trump’s Inauguration Ceremony
The upcoming inauguration is another potentially bullish event. While no immediate spike is expected on January 20 itself, the momentum from the December 18 announcement could build steadily and carry through to this date.
⚠️ Important Note:
This may turn out to be a "buy the rumor, sell the news" scenario. Similar to the pattern seen during the BTC ETF approval, Bitcoin could experience a rally ahead of these events, followed by short-term volatility or a correction before resuming its bullish trajectory.
➡️ Conclusion:
Both technical and fundamental signals point to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. Keep a close watch on the December 18 rate decision as a key turning point.
#BitcoinAnalysis #ChristmasMarketAnalysis $BTC
$ETH

1️⃣. The FED and PCE Inflation Are Pressuring the Crypto Market
✅ On December 18th, during the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, FED Chair Jerome Powell carried out the third interest rate cut of the year, as anticipated by the market. However, he also took a more hawkish stance on monetary policy for 2025. Due to signs of rising PCE inflation, the FED now plans to reduce interest rates only twice in 2025, instead of the four times previously expected.

✅ Financial markets immediately reacted negatively to this announcement, and the crypto market, being highly sensitive to macroeconomic factors, was no exception:
Bitcoin dropped from $108,000 to $92,000, losing over 15% of its value. Altcoins declined by an average of 20%-50%, with some returning to price levels seen when Bitcoin was below $60,000.

2️⃣. The Importance of Macroeconomic Factors for the Crypto Market
✅ Currently, the total market capitalization of crypto stands at $3.5 trillion, equivalent to the GDP of the United Kingdom. Although still small compared to the global capital markets, crypto’s current size means it cannot avoid being affected by global macroeconomic trends.

✅ The crypto market’s growth throughout 2024 was driven by a series of favorable conditions:
Improved global liquidity, reflected in the growth of the M2 money supply from major central banks.FED’s continuous rate cuts in 2024, providing conditions for capital flows into risk assets like Bitcoin and altcoins.Pro-Crypto policies from President Donald Trump, boosting confidence in the market.

✅ However, the current landscape is rapidly changing. The PCE inflation index – the FED’s preferred measure of inflation – is showing signs of rising again, while the FED’s tightening monetary policy remains in effect. The FED not only keeps interest rates high but is also withdrawing liquidity from the market by reducing its asset holdings (such as bonds) on its balance sheet. If inflation continues to rise sharply, the FED may even raise interest rates again, potentially accepting an economic crisis, as it has done in the past, to combat inflation.

3️⃣. PCE Inflation and the Future of the Crypto Market
✅ In a context of persistent inflation, crypto – which is considered a high-risk asset – will face significant challenges if the FED maintains high interest rates or raises them again:
Liquidity Drain: Higher capital costs will lead to reduced flows into risk assets.Declining Value: Bitcoin and altcoins will struggle to remain attractive as traditional assets like bonds become more appealing.Market Sentiment: Pessimism may spread if inflation spirals out of control, potentially triggering another crypto winter.

4️⃣. Strategies to Prepare for the Future
✅ For crypto investors, closely monitoring macroeconomic indicators is essential. Among them, the PCE inflation index in the United States is currently the most critical:
If PCE stabilizes or decreases, crypto can continue its long-term growth trend.If PCE rises sharply, prepare for a scenario of significant corrections, or even a prolonged crypto winter.

✅ Additionally, building a long-term strategy is crucial:
Diversify portfolios to reduce concentration risk in highly volatile altcoins.Consider holding a portion of assets in stablecoins or less risky instruments to preserve capital.Keep a close eye on the FED’s actions and global monetary policies to adjust strategies promptly.

5️⃣. Conclusion
✅ The mantra “Don’t fight the FED” has always been true for financial markets, and crypto is no exception. With a market capitalization of $3.5 trillion, crypto is no longer a market that operates “outside” macroeconomic forces. While the growth seen in 2024 was fueled by favorable conditions, this may not last forever. To succeed in this market, investors must always prepare for the worst scenarios and remain adaptable to changes in the macroeconomic environment.
✅ Investing without considering the macroeconomic environment is like farming without checking the weather forecast. Every sector is interconnected, and we cannot analyze any single field in isolation.


#BitcoinAnalysis
#MacroEconomics
#FEDPolicy
#InflationImpact
#GlobalLiquidity

Is the Bitcoin Market Being Manipulated? 🧐
Recent events, including the Fed’s statement that it “can’t own Bitcoin,” and speculation surrounding large players like MicroStrategy (MSTR), have raised questions. Are institutions dumping BTC to drive prices down, trigger liquidations, and reaccumulate at lower levels? Let’s dive in. 👇

The Role of Margin Liquidations

When whales dump large holdings, it triggers cascading liquidations on over-leveraged margin accounts. Here’s how it unfolds:
1️⃣ Whales Sell: Big sell-offs drive BTC prices below key support levels (e.g., $90,500).
2️⃣ Liquidation Chains: Margin traders with 10x+ leverage hit stop-outs, forcing exchanges to sell positions, amplifying the sell-off.
3️⃣ Panic Selling: Retail investors panic, pushing prices even lower.

💡 Result: Whales swoop back in, reaccumulating at discounted levels, priming the market for the next big pump.

Parallels to the Robinhood Incident

This setup mirrors what happened during the Robinhood/GME saga:
• Retail traders got caught in a liquidity trap.
• Institutions used volatility to reposition.
• Winners were those who could hold through the chaos—or buy the dip.

Could we be seeing a similar scenario unfold with Bitcoin? 🤔

Key Levels to Watch
• Support: $90,500 and $80,500 – Vital to hold these zones to avoid further liquidations.
• Resistance: $100,000 – A psychological barrier that could spark a FOMO rally if breached.

What’s Next for BTC?

🔍 Institutional Plays: Expect volatility as large players position themselves for the long-term.
⚠️ Leverage Caution: Over-leveraged positions risk liquidation, amplifying volatility.
💡 Market Psychology: Whales thrive on fear and greed—stay informed and avoid emotional trades.

📣 Pro Tip: Watch for signals of whale accumulation after sharp drops. BTC’s decentralized nature makes it resilient, even in manipulated markets. Stay patient, focus on fundamentals, and trade responsibly.

Follow The CryptoStrategist for timely updates and actionable insights. Let’s navigate this market together! 🚀
#BTC #Liquidation #BitcoinAnalysis
#ChristmasMarketAnalysis #BTCNextMove

Alliance DAO partners recently expressed concerns in a podcast about potential risks to Bitcoin’s price over the next four years, especially if it falls below $58,000.
This figure is believed to be close to the liquidation threshold for MicroStrategy, the publicly traded company that owns one of the largest Bitcoin reserves.
MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, has accumulated over 150,000 BTC, representing about 3% of the total Bitcoin supply. According to the podcast, Saylor’s average Bitcoin purchase price is estimated to be $58,000. If Bitcoin falls below this level, the company could face significant liquidation risks.
Podcast participants speculated that such an event could potentially lead to a financial crisis “100 times larger” than the collapses of Terra Luna and FTX, both of which sent shockwaves through the cryptocurrency market.
On the bright side, the podcast also outlined a rather optimistic scenario where Bitcoin rises to $500,000. Such a price increase would not only validate MicroStrategy’s bold strategy, but it could also make Michael Saylor the richest person in history. A Bitcoin price of $500,000, combined with MicroStrategy’s Bitcoin holdings, could make Saylor the first trillionaire in human history.
Michael Saylor has been a strong advocate of Bitcoin, often describing it as “digital gold” and a long-term hedge against inflation.

#BitcoinCrash #BitcoinAnalysis #CryptoCrash #FTX #LUNA $BTC $LUNA $LUNC