[Sharing of hedging strategies on the weekend of August 3, non-agricultural data triggered recession concerns, and the US stock market brought down the cryptocurrency market. Will it continue to fall further in the future? ]

Recently, I have been reminding you of the black swan risk. I wonder if any island friends have bought insurance and recovered some losses last night.

Last night, the number of new non-agricultural jobs in the United States in July was far below expectations and the previous value, and the unemployment rate was the highest in nearly three years. Recession concerns caused the market to plummet and US bonds to soar.

The number of non-agricultural jobs in July dropped sharply from the previous value of 179,000 to 114,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest level in three years, and triggered the recession indicator Sam's rule. Affected by this, the three major US stock indexes led the decline, and the "fear index" VIX hit the highest level since March last year, up more than 59%.

At present, analysts believe that there is no suspense about the interest rate cut in September. The key is how much it can be cut? If it is less than 100 basis points, it will probably be a drop in the bucket and it will be difficult to curb the recession.

The US recession will bring down the US stock market and the world economy, and the huge risks will make the market silent.

On the other hand, in the cryptocurrency circle, the big cake and the concubine followed the decline, and the amplitude was large. The implied volatility of the two rebounded from the bottom. The recent volatility has risen particularly fast, and the left side of the volatility tilt curve has risen. It seems that everyone's bets on the decline have increased.

In the next few days, the probability of a continued deep retracement is very high. It is recommended to take insurance to prevent tail risks.

At the same time, the upward trend of volatility is also conducive to the implementation of the seller's short volatility strategy at highs.

When it fell, there was also good news. Trump said in an interview on Friday that it is recommended to use cryptocurrency to solve the US debt problem, suggesting that the United States accepts Bitcoin to help solve the US debt of 35 trillion US dollars.

In this way, Bitcoin's future prospects are still bright, and in order to take on the great responsibility, it has to continue to rise.

Therefore, the forward ambush rise is still the main theme of option traders.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island to communicate.

#冰火岛

Is this a huge negative for BNB?

According to Bloomberg, people familiar with the matter revealed that the US Department of Justice (DOJ) has selected consulting firm Forensic Risk Alliance (FRA) as Binance's external regulator.

As a supervisory agency, FRA will be responsible for ensuring that Binance complies with the plea agreement. FRA will gain access to the company's internal records, facilities and employees and report the company's activities to the government.

This means that users from all over the world will no longer have privacy in front of the US Department of Justice. It's too outrageous.

It will probably trigger a mass exodus.

I hope CZ can counter after he is released from prison.
#冰火岛 $BTC $BNB

【9.6 Ice and Fire Island Strategy: Data dominates market sentiment, will non-farm payrolls lead to a weekend market crash? 】

Last night, recession expectations rose again, and analysts believe that the possibility of a 50 basis point rate cut in September has risen to 45%.

The ADP employment data, known as the "small non-farm payrolls", unexpectedly fell to 99,000, a three-and-a-half-year low, showing a sharp slowdown in the labor market. Tonight, the August non-farm payrolls data will affect the market and will have a huge impact on the September rate cut.

On the other hand, the US ISM service industry index in August has expanded moderately for two consecutive months, and the final value of the Markit service industry PMI is the highest in nearly two and a half years, and recession concerns have been dispelled.

The data-dominated market sentiment model of the US economy has gone a bit crazy. Once the subsequent data gets out of control, the Federal Reserve and even the entire US market may be backfired by the data.

However, there is still good news in China. On the one hand, the RMB exchange rate has risen, which will push up the A-share market index; on the other hand, Guotai Junan merged with Haitong, and the brokerage firm's big move indicates a rebound in the stock market.

How should cryptocurrency traders choose at the crossroads where US stocks are falling and A-shares are expected to rise? Obviously, the trend of Bitcoin has clearly followed the trend of US technology stocks.

In the next month, it is very necessary to prepare for a correction or even a plunge and take insurance measures.

Tonight's non-agricultural data is the first test.

Suggestions:

Ambush the double buy strategy half an hour in advance and bet on gamma riots and volatility surges.

After the data is released, monitor the opening trend of US stocks. If the stock trend is not good, stop loss and exit in advance. If there is a large fluctuation in US stocks, you can hold the position overnight and bet on the simultaneous plunge or surge of Bitcoin.

The seller recommends that you can clear the position in advance and re-establish the position on the weekend according to the change in volatility. September is a month to test patience and technology. The decline is not terrible. As long as you master the rhythm of volatility changes, the double sell strategy can still be profitable.

For more details, please join Binghuo Island to communicate.

#冰火岛 #张无忌wepoets

Give back to the community, give away 20U×10 sol options in a lucky draw

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community. #冰火岛

Wish the islanders prosperity and long-term winning strategies! #抽奖

[Sharing of hedging strategies on 6.24, the pie fell slightly, the market as a whole is weak, waiting for good news to boost]

This week is another week full of big things. The release of US core PCE data will disturb the market. At the same time, the first TV debate of the US presidential election will also trigger a wave of positive attention on the topic of encryption. Expectations skyrocketed.

The pie fell lower over the weekend, which is in line with the previous volatility signal analysis. The downward trend of pie volatility remains unchanged and shows a gathering trend. When will the mean revert, we have to wait for the news of interest rate cut to come out.

The historical volatility of Ethereum has increased significantly, and the implied volatility is also rising. If nothing unexpected happens, there will be big moves this week, and skyrocketing prices are expected.

Volatility reflects the mentality of traders and predicts traders' risk preference for the future. However, volatility cannot resist sudden changes in external data, so volatility can assist predictions and should be further combined with macro and micro data.

June is coming to an end. Analysts predict that July and August will be mostly boring sideways trading periods. We are collectively optimistic about the market situation after September.

Under this premise, we have stronger reasons to continue to implement the covered strategy and obtain stable income through the passage of time.

The newly opened Yitai 3450 contract + 3500 short call combination a few days ago can only cover the retracement of 3400. Once it falls below 3400, it will lose money. Therefore, you can close the 3500 call position and continue the short 3400 call position until the 28th of this week. If the price continues to fall this week, positions can be moved backward and rolled over before expiration.

If you have not opened a position before, you can buy next week's combination of 3400 delivery contract + short call 3500 today.

A dull knife cuts through the flesh of the falling market. Using coverage near the average value can absorb the time value and play a certain role in covering the retracement, which is very cost-effective.

The coverage of the main spot positions can be maintained at the psychological price and rolled over to September.

In terms of Pairs trade, island friends who are long ETH and short ens have already made quite good profits, so they can just continue to hold positions. It is not recommended to open new positions. When the trend of ens breaks the Bollinger Band, it is recommended to close all positions. For now, just continue to hedge the downside risk of ETH.

Welcome to join the Binghuo Island community and communicate together.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH

$BTC

[6.26 hedging strategy sharing, the Fed's hawkish remarks are coming, and the US stock market seems to have stopped buying it. Can the big cake rise? ]

The hawkish speech of the Fed voting committee stated that there might be no interest rate cuts in 2024. This hawkish speech seems to be another wolf coming, and the friends are a little unconvinced, even the US stock market Nvidia rebounded, Microsoft and Google hit new highs.

Can the big cake rebound? From the data, it seems that there is some resistance. The historical volatility is up, and the implied volatility is down, which is a divergence trend.

Although short-term divergence cannot indicate any long-term trend, the lack of momentum for rebound sentiment is certain.

Look forward to the emergence of new sentiment. The release of PCE data this Friday may be a good opportunity.

In addition, our crypto OG Trump will also have an election debate on Friday. Look forward to his golden sentences to ignite market sentiment.

The concubine is still cold and deserted, and the news of ETF listing is kept secret. The main force will not let retail investors buy the bottom in advance. This is a game of endurance and patience.

This week's hedging strategy is to be prepared for continued declines and to take insurance.

In terms of insurance, I think that the price of Yitai will not fall below 2900, and the price of Dabing will not fall below 56500.

For the insurance of Yitai, it is recommended to do a ratio spread, buy 3300 puts and sell 2900 puts, the time is the end of September, and the position ratio is 1:2. As long as it does not fall below 2900 at expiration, the combination will have the highest return.

At the same time, continue to cover the Yitai options and do not give up the weekly minimum guarantee income.

In order not to miss the future increase, a forward call ratio spread is also made. Buy 3800 calls and sell 4500 calls, position ratio: 1:2. Or, buy 3500 calls and sell 4000 calls, position ratio 1:1. Both are possible. Expiration time is the end of September.

As long as it does not rise above 4500 at expiration, the ratio spread will have the highest return. If it rises to more than 3500 but not more than 4000 at expiration, the bull spread combination will have the highest return. According to the judgment of the future market, everyone can build their own favorite price range.

In terms of Pairs trade, the cottage rebounded violently, and the profit could not last long. With the breakthrough of the upper track, it is not too late to short. Don't rush to open a position at present, just observe.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community to communicate together.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $BTC $ETH $SOL

[6.29 hedging strategy sharing, US PCE hits a three-year low, but the stock market is still falling, Big Bread and Auntie continue to reduce volatility, and the market will continue to be cold]

The crypto market has entered the sage time. As the embarrassing situation of good news not being fulfilled and rising continues, market sentiment has become cold and dull to the freezing point.

Before and after the release of US PCE data, the market was quite expectant, but the effect was average. US stocks still opened high and closed low, and did not bring strong sentiment.

The volatility of Big Bread and Auntie in the currency circle continued to decline. Big Bread has reached a historical low. Although Auntie is still at a relatively high level, the trend is also continuing to reduce volatility.

The weekend market is likely to continue to maintain a negative decline. At the same time, be careful of the risk of a large retracement.

In this situation, it is recommended to still focus on the covered call strategy, and buy the put ratio spread at delta0.3 to protect against declines.

According to the historical experience of the listing of Big Bread ETF, necessary callbacks can relieve Grayscale's selling pressure and guide new physical assets into ETFs.

The Yitai ETF is likely to follow a similar process, and may have entered the wash period.

In terms of pairs trade, the leading token of the EVM system continues to rise, approaching the upper track of the Bollinger band, and can be hedged with a light position.

Welcome to join the Binghuodao community to communicate together.

#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $ETH $SOL $ENS

[6.22 hedging strategy sharing, Bitcoin enters a downward trend, beware of the risk of retracement, and do a good job of hedging protection]

When the moon is full, it will be waning, and the profit cannot last long. Whether it is the US stock market or Bitcoin, it has been rising for too long, and the view of retracement is gradually increasing.

From the data, the trend of Bitcoin breaks below the lower track of the daily Bollinger Band, and the daily line forms an obvious M top. The historical volatility of Bitcoin has gradually risen steadily, but the implied volatility has continued to decline, and has approached the historical low, IVP34.9.

The divergence of volatility shows that traders are very pessimistic about the market outlook in the next 30 days, the trading momentum is weakened, and the probability of Bitcoin retracement or even a sharp drop increases.

Under this judgment premise, there are several ways to deal with it:

First, continue to cover short-term calls and use time value to subsidize the possible downside losses of Bitcoin.

Second, buy out-of-the-money put options to protect against potential future declines.

Third, go long on Auntie and short on Bitcoin, and use hedging to protect.

I personally prefer covered calls and hedging. Capital shifts from Bitcoin to the speculation of Yitai, especially after the listing of Yitai ETF, this possibility will be very high.

This process will not be achieved overnight. U.S. stocks can be used as a signal. When the three major stock indexes fall back, the hedging of Bitcoin can be started.

At present, use Yitai and Bitcoin exchange rates to go long, and do not take measures against this wave of Yitai.

In terms of pairs trade, go long on Yitai and short on ENs, uni, etc., and you can build positions in batches.

Once Bitcoin plummets, the cottage will follow and form a trampling, so ambush in advance to prevent any accidents.

Yitai's ETF is expected to make it perform strongly, which is the logic of going long on Yitai.

Welcome to join the Ice and Fire Island community for discussion and exchange. Recently, there is a 200U welfare distribution, welcome to receive it.

$BTC $ETH $SOL #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Can I short ens? When should I enter the market?

Go long on Yitai and short ens to hedge. You can do it slowly in batches. The trend has already diverged.

Hedging of different currencies, also known as pairs trade, can be one-to-one or 2-to-1.

Hedging of Yitai and ens can be 2-to-1 if you are more conservative. You can build positions in batches to avoid losses caused by continued upward speculation of ens and leave room for replenishment.

When hedging different currencies, do not add leverage and do not exceed 20% of the total position.

Profits cannot last long, and they will decline after reaching their peak. As a seller, you must always be able to endure loneliness and be a friend of time.

I wish the sellers a long-term win and make a fortune together. $ENS $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Basic knowledge of options, Part 4 (Gamma)

Gamma indicates the sensitivity of the Delta value of an option to the price change of the underlying asset, that is, gamma is a parameter used to measure the change of the delta value. When the option is close to expiration, the gamma value will become larger, and a small change in the price of the underlying asset will cause a large change in the Delta value.

Simply put, you can remember two points. First, the gamma value of at-the-money options is the largest, and the real-money and imaginary-money options decrease towards both ends. Second, the shorter the expiration date, the larger the gamma value.

Therefore, a strategy specifically for gamma values ​​was born, called "Doomsday Lottery".

It is to buy at-the-money call and put options that are close to expiration, and then bet on the huge fluctuations before expiration.

Once the bet is successful, due to the huge gamma value, the income will surge by dozens or hundreds of times.

However, nine out of ten bets are lost, and the doomsday lottery betting on gamma can basically win once or twice in a hundred times, and the average income and expenditure are equal.

How can the law of nature be allowed to be free lunch?

There is a gamma transaction on the Deri platform. It is a new product that makes profits by going long or short on the gamma value. It makes the doomsday lottery a daily routine. If you are interested, you can study it. Its visualization chart clearly depicts the yield curve of gamma trading.
#对冲交易 #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH

Go long on Bitcoin, go short on STX, the dream combination can start to pay attention to the timing of building a position again

STX completed the mainnet upgrade yesterday, and it is estimated that it will continue to rise in the future.

The best time to short is when the upper rail of the Bollinger Band breaks through.

Go long on Bitcoin, go short on STX, and the position ratio is 2 to 1.

Hold a mid-term position and wait for STX to return to the lower rail. Each cycle takes about a month.

Enjoy the sense of fate of hedging transactions. Let time flow quietly, without rushing or being impatient, and wait for the flowers to bloom.

#比特币减半 $BTC $ETH $STX
#冰火岛 #对冲交易

Talk about the option strategy of taking a small risk and a big risk, the ratio spread strategy

If you only have $1,000 or $500, how can you follow the rising trend with a small risk and not get liquidated due to a pullback or a spike?

It's very simple, don't do contracts, do options.

For example, you think the price of Auntie may rise to around 3,650 next week. Then, you can buy a call option with an exercise price of 3,600 and sell two call options with an exercise price of 3,750, both of which expire next week.

Then, when Auntie rises to around 3,650 next week, you will reap the maximum profit, which is about 10 to 20 times leverage, but you will not get liquidated due to a sharp drop.

At the same time, your option fee is almost zero cost.

The only risk is that if Auntie rises more than 3,750, you will suffer a loss.

How to define your own ratio spread price range needs to be determined based on your risk tolerance and the overall market trend.

Have you ever done a ratio spread strategy? Compared with the bull market spread, it has a smaller investment and higher returns. The risk of loss from a unilateral surge is greater, and the risk of loss from a unilateral plunge is smaller.

$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Feasibility analysis of shorting ton coin

Ton coin is the token of telegram, with nearly 1 billion real traffic, which can be regarded as a foreign WeChat-level super application.

The development of ton chain is good, and its current market value ranks ninth in the world.

With a price of 6 dollars and unlimited supply, can it be strong in the future?

The answer is no. The circulation of more than 3 billion is already ninth in market value. If its currency volume increases further, it has the opportunity to compete in the top three.

This is too easy for an application chain, and money is not earned in this way.

Of course, ton is also working hard to improve empowerment, release mobile phones, and share advertising to make the chain more valuable.

But the current valuation is still high.

Once the bull market is blocked, it is a more reasonable view that ton will pull back by 30%.

However, this coin is not currently listed on Binance, and there are no related options products. Hedging short-selling transactions uses Bitcoin to hedge.

Go long on pie and short on ton, with a position ratio of 1 to 1.

#比特币减半 #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Thank you for recharging your faith again.

Ethereum holders are quite anxious recently.

When will it be listed? I have been waiting for so long that my hair has turned gray. Haha $ETH

It will soon soar to the sky!

To chase the rise with options, you can consider the bull spread and ratio spread strategies.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易

Basic knowledge of options, first bullet

Starting today, I will popularize the basic knowledge of options trading. Major exchanges should thank me for providing free investment education, haha.

Let's talk about the four trading directions of options first.

Options, options, a right to buy or sell spot at a specific price at a future time.

Therefore, options are divided into call options and put options.

Call, call option, stipulates that the buyer of the option buys spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.

Call options include two trading directions:

Long call, buy call

Short call, sell call

Put, put option, stipulates that the buyer of the option sells spot at a specific price at a specific time in the future.

Put options include two trading directions:

Long put, buy put

Short put, sell put

For example,

Ethereum Long- 20240419- 3600-call

The above option means that the eth call option expires on April 19, 2024, with an exercise price of $3,600.

If you buy this option and choose to exercise it when it expires, you can buy the aunt at a price of $3,600. If it rises to $3,700 at this time, you will make a profit. If it falls to $3,500 at this time, it is not profitable, and you can also not exercise the option, and only lose the premium for buying the option.

If you sell this option, you promise to sell the aunt at a price of 3,600 yuan as agreed when the option expires. No matter how much the aunt price is at that time, as long as someone exercises the option with you, you must fulfill the contract. In return, you can get the option premium.

So, the buyer pays the premium and gets a promise. The seller promises a promise, gets the premium, and the option transaction is completed.

In order to ensure fulfillment, we will also ask the seller to pay a certain margin.

In reality, many buyers use option leverage to bet on unilateral rises and falls for the sake of safety and risk-taking. Many sellers do it to hedge spot risks and hedge arbitrage.

Everyone gets what they need and gets what they want. This is the charm of the financial market.

At present, Bitcoin and Ethereum options are relatively mature, and everyone can trade together.

Next time, we will talk about the impact of Greek letters on trading.

For more knowledge about #对冲交易 , please follow #冰火岛 $BTC $ETH

Today's hedging strategy sharing, talk about Ethereum ETF's favorable pledge track

Fidelity has modified the ETF application form, indicating that it will no longer be pledged. In other words, once the Yitai ETF is listed, the absolute deflation of Ethereum will be aggravated.

Without staking, there will be no interest, and the ETF income of Ethereum will decrease. However, the pledge income of other Yitai will be relatively improved.

In other words, the larger the scale of the ETF, the higher the return of the pledge track, because staking is the core mechanism of Ethereum's POS, and it must have a certain scale to ensure safety.

So it is understandable that the copycat rises, and it is even more understandable that the market expects Yitai ETF. It can activate the entire second-layer network and generate alpha returns far exceeding other currencies.

Therefore, once the Yitai ETF is passed, it is a good idea to ambush a leader in the pledge and re-pledge track.

At the same time, you can use over-the-counter options to hedge and enhance the income of holding coins.

Let's get back to the point. Today's strategy is still bullish on Ethereum, but you must do a good job of hedging against retracements.

Will the landing deadline on the 23rd pass? The big fluctuations are already undercurrent.

It is recommended to buy the double-buy doomsday options that expire on the 24th at noon on the 23rd.

The price of the aunt soared, and the call option soared 6,000 times. This market may be replicated again. Soaring or plummeting, double buying can take it all.

Unless it does not rise or fall, then you can only admit defeat. Double buying is betting on big fluctuations, so the investment is very small. Under $100, don't invest more.

If you don't want to gamble, you can continue to do covered call strategy. Buy spot and sell call options with an exercise price of 4,000. Expiration date is May 31st.

In the middle of the bull market, I wish you all continue to make a fortune. $BTC $ETH #以太坊ETF批准预期 #冰火岛 #对冲交易

Today's hedging trading strategy, continue to be long on Ethereum

The takeoff of Auntie is not far away.

Continue to build positions in batches, hedge the sale of call options, out-of-the-money strike prices 3450 and 3750

You can use pendle to hedge part of it

The rise of Auntie needs an opportunity, and Hong Kong ETF is an opportunity

In addition, the hoarding of coins by giant whales will also help Auntie stabilize the trend

As long as it goes sideways, it is a victory $ETH
#对冲交易 #冰火岛

Today’s hedging trading strategy, pay attention to safety

The sudden rise and fall of the currency circle is the source of profits for hedging transactions. Only by making good use of the fluctuations can you carry out price difference arbitrage.

Big Pie and Auntai have fallen significantly, and the hedged currencies have basically not fallen much. In this case, you cannot blindly cover your positions.

I have always emphasized that leverage cannot be increased, just to prevent hedging imbalances from causing liquidation.

In the current market situation, just continue to hold positions. Funding rates are still friendly to holding positions.

Before the halving, plummeting and rising prices were the usual tactics of bookmakers, so just sit tight on the Diaoyutai.

Option hedging can be forward monthly settlement, sell and call, and the exercise price is 72,000.

You can cover the floating loss part, but the principle is that the total position cannot exceed the margin, and there is no need to add leverage.

There is no rush to close the hedging position that has already made a profit at this time. You can continue to hold it.

I have talked about the concept of closing positions before. Only when you find a combination to open a new position, it is not too late to close the old position.

$BTC $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

Brothers, have you seen Renzo's concubine decouple? Ena's future has been previewed

As long as it is possible to decouple, it will definitely decouple.

The decoupled price flash crashed by more than 50%.

This is devastating.

No market can withstand such a large instantaneous drop.

Cherish the bull market. $ETH #对冲交易 #冰火岛

[7.15 hedging strategy sharing, what is Trump trading? How will it affect the trend of the cryptocurrency circle]

Trump was assassinated, and the financial market is hotly discussing the "Trump trading". What is Trump trading?

In fact, it is very simple, it is an expected transaction betting on Trump's victory and the subsequent shift in US economic policy.

The United States is a two-party ruling party. The Democratic Party, representing the left-wing forces, is biased towards financial capital, and the Republican Party, representing the right-wing forces, is biased towards industrial capital. As the spokesperson for the Republican Party and rednecks, Trump is naturally the spokesperson for industrial capital. Once he wins the election, American industrial stocks and assets will usher in spring.

At the same time, Trump trading is also intertwined with future interest rate cuts. The strengthening of the US dollar and the strengthening of Bitcoin in the market are actually strange phenomena after the integration of Trump trading and interest rate cuts.

Bitcoin represents people's fear of high inflation and risk aversion. The cryptocurrency circle is the reservoir for future interest rate cuts.

Therefore, we can imagine that the situation after Trump's victory may be a situation of coordinated economic growth transformation and interest rate cuts. There may not be a direct surge in the stock market, but the probability of capital swaps is greater.

The only good news is that Trump holds 5 million U of ETH, and he will be friendly to the Auntie ETF and its entire crypto track.

From this week's short-term strategy, we can still bet on the above expectations.

It is recommended to do a short-term strategy of spot + covered call, or to lay out a long-term bull spread and ratio spread strategy.

In terms of pairs trade, continue to pay attention to coins such as ens, and hedge and short at highs.

The only variable in the near future is the listing of the Auntie ETF. Make an early layout and prepare for the response of falling first and then rising. Whether it rises first and then falls or falls first and then rises, the important thing is to get high returns with low risk and small investment. Options are a better choice than contracts.

Welcome to join Binghuo Island to communicate.

#冰火岛 #对冲交易 $ETH

$SOL