In the past two weeks, the clouds hanging over the BTC price are not only due to the large continuous outflows from spot ETFs but also because of the Mt. Gox ticking time bomb. Today, the Mt. Gox trustees officially began repaying creditors. According to Mt. Gox trustee Nobuaki Kobayashi, the repayments will be made in BTC and will start in early July. Coupled with the 14,000 BTC transferred from Mt. Gox addresses a month ago, the market reacted immediately to the news by seeking safety, causing BTC to plummet in the short term, briefly dipping below 61,000.
Source: Farside Investors; TradingView
On the options side, the increase in realized volatility and market concerns about future trends significantly raised front-end implied volatility levels, while front-end Vol Skew also remained positively correlated with prices, dropping into negative territory. Looking at BTC trading, despite the price having declined for several consecutive days before the news, the market flow concentrated at the end of June was still mainly Long Risky, perhaps due to low prices attracting bullish option bottom-fishing or trust in the key support levels at 61,000/60,000.
Regarding ETH, the president of The ETF Store reiterated that the Ethereum spot ETF might launch next week, giving the community some hope. Market expectations also pushed the smile curve beyond July to tilt toward call options, in clear contrast with the front end. However, there seems to be a divergence in the market as well. With high IV and high Vol Skew, over 3,000 4000-C options expiring at the end of July were sold, making it a trading hotspot yesterday.
Source: Deribit （As of 24 JUN 8:00 UTC）
Source: SignalPlus，Front-end IV rises after a sharp drop.
Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Transactions
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
