Bitcoin has experienced a notable decline, falling below the $63,000 mark, coinciding with a significant drop in large transactions. Bitcoin transactions valued at $100,000 or more have seen a marked decrease over the past two days. This drop in activity comes just before Bitcoin’s price slipped below $63,000.
Decline in Whale Transactions
On June 23, data from Santiment revealed that the total number of Bitcoin whale transactions—those exceeding $100,000—fell to 9,923 over the previous two days. This represents a 42% decrease from the 17,091 transactions recorded during the prior two-day period. This shift in whale behavior occurred as Bitcoin's price declined from $64,685 to $63,422 and further down to $62,531 at the time of publication, according to CoinMarketCap data.
Market Sentiment and Risk-Off Mode
Whale traders, particularly those on derivatives exchanges, have also shown a shift towards caution. CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju highlighted this trend, noting that these traders are in "risk-off mode." In a June 23 post on X (formerly Twitter), Ki explained that the inter-exchange flow pulse (IFP) had turned "red," signaling a bearish change in market sentiment. The IFP monitors Bitcoin movements between spot and derivative exchanges, and its red signal indicates an increase in traders withdrawing their Bitcoin from derivatives platforms.
Crypto Fear and Greed Index
The Crypto Fear and Greed Index, a measure of market sentiment, has also reflected this cautious outlook, dropping to a "Neutral" score of 51. This is the lowest it has been in 51 days since Bitcoin fell below the critical $60,000 level to $59,122.
ETF Outflows and Market Outlook
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have seen consistent outflows over the past six trading days, according to Farside data. The largest outflow occurred on June 13, amounting to $226.2 million. Despite these bearish indicators, some analysts maintain a more optimistic view on Bitcoin's price trajectory.
James Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, also known as “Checkmatey,” pointed to the Bitcoin Sell-side Risk Ratio as a positive sign. In a June 23 X post, he stated that the ratio has reached levels suggesting it is time for the market to move. "All the profits that were going to be taken have been. Same for losses," he explained, suggesting that Bitcoin will need to establish a new price range to reignite market activity.
Conclusion
The recent decline in Bitcoin’s price and the drop in large transactions highlight a period of cautious sentiment among major traders. While some indicators point to potential recovery, the market remains in a state of flux, with analysts divided on the future direction of Bitcoin’s price. As the situation develops, both bearish and bullish signs will continue to shape the outlook for this leading cryptocurrency.
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