Hey guys.
This is a weekly update on bitcoin.
In the last review, we said that the price is likely to head to the 64k zone to update the LOW and remove stop liquidity, which is exactly what happened.
What to expect this week and in the near future from bitcoin.
To answer this question, we need to look at the stock market and what is the likely scenario there now. Last week was the expiration of quarterly derivatives, and during this period there is a high probability of corrections, changes in local trends. Since the stock indices are inflated and have moved away from their moving averages, we may see a local correction of 3-5%. This process may last 1-2 weeks, until the release of macro statistics in July on labor market and inflation data, which will determine the date of the first Fed interest rate cut. If we see a decline in inflation and a slowdown in the labor market, we can expect the first cut in September. Moreover, the market will play it back in advance July-August. Therefore, my expectations for the next 1-2 weeks is a moderate correction of major assets, including bitcoin and the entire crypto market, as they are already very closely linked to the stock market. This long introduction is needed to better understand what is happening to the market right now.
Last week, bitcoin sales by institutional participants continued, with total outflows from spot ETFs totaling 535 million.
Onchain metrics are still trending up, with exchange balances at low levels.
Bitcoin TA.
Expectations of a false breakdown of the lower boundary of the local sidewall in the 64-65 zone are not justified, the buyer is not working actively yet, there is no formation of clusters at the bottom, but we also see that sellers are not able to drive the price down yet. We can expect the continuation of a smooth decline under the downtrend. To what level it will last to 62 or 60 or below to remove the tail in the zone of 57 is not known.
It all looks like shaking out weak hands from the market. The key resistance and support zones are 67 and 64-62. DYOR.
Stay tuned.
