Last Friday, after the PCE data was released, Fed Chair Powell delivered a speech that marked a departure from his previous dovish stance, indicating to the market that there is no rush to cut interest rates given the current situation. Following this, yesterday (Apr 1), the US March ISM Manufacturing Index recorded 50.3, exceeding expectations and marking the first expansion since 2022, leading to a further weakening in market expectations for a Fed rate cut in June (the probability of which was priced at 50/50 in the futures market). US Treasury yields surged, with the two-year and ten-year yields reaching 4.70% and 4.35%, respectively, as the dovish narrative continues to face challenges.

Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar, The U.S. non-farm employment index and hourly wages data will be released this week.

Source: SignalPlus & TradingView

Source: Coinglass

In the realm of digital currency, BTC fell to $66,000 during the Asia Stock Market trading session, breaking the recent sideways trend around $70,000. However, the funding rates on major exchanges remain at a higher level under a lopsided bullish position. Analysts point out that this round of price adjustment may be due to the liquidation and stop-loss actions of futures long positions. The momentum of the cryptocurrency’s rise seems to start weakening, with the Vol Skew of the options market at a historical low (the 25-day Risk Reversal is around the 25th percentile of the past three months). From a trading perspective, the past day’s bullish option trading volume significantly outweighed bearish options, with ETH’s Put/Call Ratio even reaching an extremely low point close to 0.2, forming a flow similar to a Sell Call Spread. BTC’s selling pressure is stronger in the short term, with bullish long positions shifting towards the far end.

Source: Deribit （As of 2 APR 8:00 UTC）

Source: SignalPlus, ATM Vol

Source: SignalPlus, Vol Skew

Data Source: Deribit, ETH trading distribution, the Put/Call Ratio reached an extremely low point close to 0.2.

Data Source: Deribit, BTC trading distribution, strong selling pressure in the short term.

Source: Deribit Block Trade

Source: Deribit Block Trade