This time, it's different is a statement that has not fared well when it concerns the market. We have heard it so many times only to see the market crash. Euphoria dominates, and then a long pit into despair. Could this happen again? Yes! Notwithstanding, something is different this time.
Though we have the Fear-and-Greed Index at extreme greed, BTC goes on to an even higher price. As of writing, BTC is $73.4k. That isn't something to sniff at. In my piece dated 8 March, I stated that I expected a big price dump between $70k - $72k. It happened but at a higher price of about $72.5k. We saw BTC fall to $68.6k. As I mentioned, some wanted to take profits at around $72k, and of course, derivatives flushed out. That all happened last night.
Many would argue things are different this time for several reasons. First, BTC hit an all-time high before the halving, which has never happened before. Second, the number of BTC left to be mined is dwindling. In other words, demand is more than supply due to institutional interest.
Third, long-term holders are just not selling. Most now see BTC as a store of value. Not to mention the increasingly difficult geo-political and economic situation many countries face. Fourth, BTC flipped Silver in terms of total market capitalisation. No one would have expected that for a relatively new asset class.
Fifth, the recent interview given by Donald Trump on cryptocurrencies was interesting if nothing else. He has softened his tone on BTC. Sixth, the recent claim by the European Central Bank (ECB) that BTC had failed is frankly laughable. When you hear the ECB moaning about something, it is a success. Seventh, I am sure you have read stories on how people in countries like Nigeria would sooner buy BTC than take up the Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC).
I could go on, but I will stop there. One thing I will not do is say BTC is going to one million dollars this cycle. I am not saying it won't get there, as I and no one else knows. I believe it will be quite a while for that high a price, if ever.
We now have commentators touting the $150k price level for BTC. I dare say euphoria is in the air. We must proceed with caution and watch the market closely. Let us enjoy the ride and be ready to jump off as soon as the market turns. We are in the business of making money, not some social experiment. As for when BTC will get to $150k, your guess is as good as mine. So, what do you think?