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DOLLAR RISE TO HIGHEST LEVEL SINCE NOVEMBER 2022 AFTER FED DECISION
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At the FOMC, fears about inflation increased again. The number of FOMC members who see risks to raising the core PCE rose from 3 to 15. This was the biggest meeting-to-meeting increase since at least 2017. The median inflation forecast for the next year increased from 2.1% to 2.5%. This practically guarantees a pause in rate cuts in January 2025.
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I would prefer to see a move to the lower limit before the growth continues. There was a similar scenario in 2023.
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The S&P 500 index falls sharply after the Fed cut rates by 25 basis points but raised its inflation forecast. The Fed reduced the forecast from 3 to 2 reduced rates in 2025 and raised inflation expectations from 2.1% to 2.5%. In other words, the Fed is saying that inflation is back, and the rate cut will be smaller than planned. Ps: if nothing changes, of course
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After the announcement by the Fed, the futures market is betting that there will NOT be another rate cut in January 2025.
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BRIEF DESCRIPTION OF THE DECISION OF THE Fed (December 18, 2024): 1. The Fed reduces rates by 25 basis points. In general, the rate in 2024 has already been reduced by 100 basis points. 2. President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, Beth Hammack, expressed her disagreement with the rate cut. 3. The Fed's median forecast shows 2 decreases in 2025 by a total of 50 basis points. 4. The Fed revised the inflation forecast for the end of 2025 from 2.1% to 2.5% 5. The Fed predicts an unemployment rate of 4.3% by the end of 2025. 6. One of the Fed officials does not see a rate cut in 2025
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