Technical Indicators:
Moving Averages: Bitcoin is trading above both the 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), indicating a strong bullish trend in the medium to long term. The 20-day EMA is also below the current price, further confirming this trend.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): The RSI has been creeping towards overbought territory (>70), currently around 61.40. This suggests that while there's still room for upward movement, a correction might be on the horizon if it enters overbought levels.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD is showing a positive value, indicating bullish momentum, but there's also mention of bearish divergence, where the price is making higher highs while the MACD forms lower highs, suggesting a potential weakening of the bullish trend.
Bollinger Bands: The bands are tightening, which often precedes a significant price move. This "squeeze" indicates that Bitcoin could be gearing up for a breakout, either up or down.
Volume: Recent movements have been backed by strong trading volumes, which validate the price action. However, volume tops and bottoms do not perfectly correspond with price tops and bottoms, suggesting some caution.
Chart Patterns:
Ascending Triangle: There's an ascending triangle formation on the daily chart, which typically resolves with a breakout to the upside. This pattern has been forming with support at around $98,000 and resistance at $105,000.
Inverted Head & Shoulders: On shorter timeframes, an inverted head and shoulders pattern has been noted, which is a bullish reversal pattern, suggesting potential for upward movement if the neckline resistance is convincingly broken.
Market Sentiment:
Bullish Indicators: The general sentiment is bullish, with BTC holding above significant psychological and technical levels. The recent reclaiming of the $100,000 mark after a dip has been seen as a sign of resilience and continued investor interest.
Bearish Concerns: Despite the bullish outlook, there's caution due to the RSI and MACD divergence. High leverage in the market could lead to volatility, and any failure to break above current resistances might lead to a significant pullback or consolidation phase.
Fundamental Analysis:
Institutional Demand: There's strong institutional inflow, with recent reports mentioning billions in inflows, despite some rejections from major companies like Microsoft regarding holding Bitcoin on their balance sheet.
Regulatory and Political Impact: The change in U.S. political leadership with Trump's incoming administration, especially with a crypto-friendly figure like French Hill as Chairman of the House Financial Services Committee, could influence Bitcoin's trajectory positively.
Price Levels to Watch:
Support Levels: Immediate support is seen at around $95,000, with further support at $90,000 if there's a deeper correction.
Resistance Levels: The next immediate resistance is at $105,000, with a psychological barrier at $110,000.