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CPI (Consumer Price Index) data releases are highly anticipated because they indicate inflation trends, which directly impact market sentiment. On CPI days, the market often experiences heightened volatility before and after the announcement. Here’s why:
1. Pre-Announcement Manipulation: Big players (institutions, hedge funds) often position themselves before CPI releases, causing unusual price movements. This is commonly referred to as "manipulation," though it can also be market positioning based on expectations.
2. Immediate Reaction: When CPI data is released, the market reacts strongly depending on whether inflation numbers are higher, lower, or in line with expectations. This creates sharp price movements.
3. Post-Settlement Normalization: After the dust settles (a few hours later or the next day), the market typically returns to its "normal" behavior, aligning with technical and fundamental setups.
If you're trading around such news, caution is key. Many experienced traders either:
Avoid the immediate announcement period, OR
Trade with tight stop losses to avoid significant risk.
What’s your plan for today? Are you sitting it out or trading the volatility?
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