Jurrien Timmer, Fidelity Investments’ Director of Global Macro, recently provided an update on his Bitcoin valuation models. Timmer’s models aim to simplify Bitcoin’s growth dynamics and bridge the gap between network adoption and valuation by incorporating adoption curves and macroeconomic factors.
Despite a slowdown in wallet growth, Timmer’s updated adoption chart still shows consistent, albeit slower, growth. He also pointed out that the wallet/address count may be understated due to Bitcoin ETFs consolidating holdings into just a few wallets. In his models, Timmer incorporated money supply growth alongside real interest rates, comparing two hypothetical paths for Bitcoin’s valuation.
He stressed that these models are not predictions but attempts to visualize the use case on the basis of adoption, real rates, and monetary inflation. The latest models reinforce Bitcoin’s position as a maturing financial asset, and highlight the importance of adoption in driving its value. Timmer’s insights serve as a valuable framework for understanding Bitcoin’s dual nature as both a network and a form of money.
The inclusion of monetary inflation in his models further underscores Bitcoin’s potential as a hedge against fiat currency debasement. As Bitcoin continues to evolve, Timmer’s models provide a critical lens for tracking its development and growth.
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