A wealthy French trader has made a massive profit of $47.8 million by betting on Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. election.
The trader, who goes by the username “Fredi9999” on Polymarket, used his background in mathematics and finance to analyze polling data and identify trends others overlooked.
The Frenchman, who previously worked as a trader at several major banks, began using his expertise to assess U.S. election polls in the summer. He joined Polymarket in June and, by August 3, was withdrawing USDC from Kraken to place significant bets. His strategy was based on his belief that polling data often overstated support for Vice President Kamala Harris, failing to account for what he called the “shy Trump voter effect.” According to him, many Trump supporters are reluctant to reveal their voting intentions to pollsters or avoid participating in surveys altogether.
To test his theory, the trader proposed the use of “neighbor polls,” where respondents are asked which candidate they think their neighbors will vote for. He believed that while people may be hesitant to share their personal preferences, they would feel more comfortable speculating about others’ choices.
He even hired a polling agency to conduct surveys using both traditional polling and neighbor polling methods. The results showed a significant drop in Harris’s support when respondents were asked about their neighbors’ preferences.
Building on this, the trader created three additional accounts on Polymarket—Theo4, PrincessCaro, and Michie—to increase his bets on Trump. Between October 2 and November 5, he withdrew $42 million from Kraken to place his wagers. His strategy paid off, and as the election results came in, he celebrated a $47.8 million profit, waking up in the middle of the night to check the results.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any services.
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