How do I short Google while giga-longing YouTube?

Google search keeps getting worse.

YouTube keeps shipping.

I'll cover:

1. How LLMs are Eating Google

2. YouTube Keeps Shipping

3. YouTube Revenue and COGs

4. YouTube Benefits from LLMs

How LLMs are Eating Google

Google searches are censored and 90% search results are ads. All my smartest friends have already switched to ChatGPT and Perplexity for search. Bard is not even a close competitor despite the enormous distribution head-start.

YouTube Keeps Shipping

YouTube, however, has been crushing it. Their growth numbers remain unaffected by the rise of LLMs.

Innovation has not stalled. The product experience has improved drastically in 2024 with:

1. Enhanced Dream Screen with VEO

2. Inspiration Tab Upgrade

3. Community Hub

4. Auto Dubbing

5. Snippets

6. Livestream Gifting

7. Affiliate Shopping

YouTube Revenue and COGs

Youtube generates more revenue than Netflix, but its COGS are significantly lower due to user-generated content. YouTube generated $43b in revenue and spent $0 to create content. While Netflix had to incur $24b on acquiring movie rights and production costs to generate $33.7b in revenue.

YouTube Benefits from LLMs

- If YouTube can figure out how to extract value from all its videos as training data for LLMs, YouTube can stand alone as a trillion dollar company.

- The network effect is only getting stronger. If you're a video content creator, YouTube is still the only viable place to build a career.

- Finally, imagine what happens when LLMs start to rival humans in video creation. The volume of Youtube content will skyrocket.

Tldr:

- Google search is on the wrong side of the LLM trade. YouTube is on the right side of it.

- Breaking up Google could be the best thing to happen to YouTube shareholders.

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