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Odaily星球日报讯 摩根大通表示,大选结果降低了 2025 年上半年围绕美国债务上限进行激烈辩论的风险,并减轻了关于财政部一般账户(TGA)演变的不确定性。债务上限已暂停至 2025 年 1 月 1 日,之后财政部将开始利用非常规措施及其现金余额来履行其债务义务。摩根大通认为,假设财政部对 2024 年第四季度的 TGA 预测为 7000 亿美元,同时非常规措施略有增加,那么财政部不太可能在 2025 年 7 月之前耗尽资源并面临技术性违约的风险。
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Odaily星球日报讯 富国银行表示,美联储似乎仍有进一步重新调整政策的空间,以避免劳动力市场在不重新引发通胀的情况下冷却到超出舒适点的水平。”料美联储降息 25 个基点,风险倾向于 FOMC 维持利率不变。最近出现的资金压力迹象使我们预计,美联储将在 11 月的会议上讨论当前的量化紧缩(QT)步伐。预计 QT 将在 2025 年第一季度结束。如果利率声明中再次出现异议,我不会感到惊讶。未来,预计美联储 12 月降息 25 个基点,2025 年再降息 125 个基点,2026 年全年按兵不动。(金十)
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