Bitcoin (BTC) fell 6.7% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 4, breaking below the $67,500 mark for the first time in eight days. This decline led to the liquidation of over $190 million in leveraged long positions and coincided with uncertainty surrounding the Nov. 5 US presidential elections.
Despite this short-term bearish momentum, three Bitcoin derivatives metrics show that the market is not panicking. These positive indicators include the long-to-short ratio of top traders on exchanges, aggregate BTC futures open interest, and stablecoin demand in China.
Exchanges top traders long-to-short ratio. Source: Coinglass
Whales and market makers on Binance and OKX show relative confidence in Bitcoin’s price recovery based on their aggregate spot and futures positions. This indicator has shown no weakness despite the recent drop below $67,500 on Nov. 4.
Traders remain optimistic about Bitcoin's price but are hesitant to pay above $70,000, as some analysts argue that a win by Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party could bring further regulatory scrutiny and restrict cryptocurrency integration with traditional finance.
US elections introduce uncertainty and limit the short-term upside
Pseudonymous crypto trader Crypto Rand suggests that Kamala Harris’s unclear stance on cryptocurrencies "plants the seed for uncertainty" and adds, “Uncertainty can be worse than opposition.” Even if Harris’s policies eventually benefit the industry, they are unlikely to match the promises of Republican candidate and former President Donald Trump.
Trump has hinted at dismissing SEC Chair Gary Gensler "on day one," though his specific plans to encourage Bitcoin adoption remain unclear. There is also debate over the speed at which significant changes in government agencies and the US Treasury could occur. Therefore, investors see limited motivation to push Bitcoin’s price to a new all-time high regardless of the US election outcome.
The primary driver of expectation disparities surrounding the US presidential elections is the focus on “digital assets,” including central bank digital currencies (CBDCs) and tokenized assets, which are distinct and largely unrelated to Bitcoin. Using blockchain technology for digital representations of real-world assets has minimal impact on overall Bitcoin demand.
To determine if professional traders are reducing exposure, analyzing total Bitcoin futures open interest is essential. A sharp decline in this metric would suggest discomfort with sector exposure, irrespective of whether the sentiment is bullish or bearish.
Aggregate Bitcoin futures open interest, BTC. Source: Coinglass
The current BTC open interest of 582,000 is comparable to the prior week’s and stands 10% above its level on Oct. 4. This suggests that investors have been increasing leveraged positions despite recent uncertainty and the price pullback. Combined with top traders’ long-to-short data, this indicates a moderate bullish sentiment even after Bitcoin surged above $73,500 on Oct. 29.
USD Tether (USDT) trades relative to the official USD/CNY rate. Source: OKX
In China, traders demonstrated resilience, with the USD Tether (USDT) stablecoin trading near its fair value against the official USD/CNY rate. During periods of high demand for cryptocurrency outflows, the USDT often trades at a 2% or higher premium. Overall, derivatives metrics reveal no signs of stress, and traders appear confident that the bull market will resume following the US presidential election.
This article is for general information purposes and is not intended to be and should not be taken as legal or investment advice. The views, thoughts, and opinions expressed here are the author’s alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.
