Betting markets reveal a tightening race between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris, with recent shifts showing Harris gaining traction. While Trump remains the frontrunner, concerns over potential voting irregularities have led some traders to hedge their bets, adding uncertainty to the election outcome. Although Trump’s chances were strong earlier, with odds over 60%, recent data indicates a narrowing gap as Harris gains support, pointing to a closer contest than previously expected.
On Polymarket, a decentralized prediction platform, Harris's odds have jumped from 33% at the end of October to about 44%, reflecting a significant gain. This shift has coincided with a drop in Trump’s odds to a two-week low of 56%, highlighting a more cautious outlook among investors, though Trump still leads. Harris’s growing odds on Polymarket suggest increased confidence in her campaign, possibly due to concerns around election integrity, which may have some traders re-evaluating Trump’s position.
Kalshi, a U.S.-based betting platform, shows a similar trend. Harris’s odds have climbed to 49%, only slightly behind Trump, who leads by a mere two points. Analysts believe this trend may indicate traders diversifying their bets by purchasing shares in Harris, especially amid heightened concerns around election security. Others speculate that market dynamics are helping push Harris’s numbers upward, potentially reflecting investor sentiment or even strategic trades to influence perception.
An X user commented that some traders are deliberately manipulating odds by creating upward pressure for Harris and downward pressure for Trump. The user alleged that trades were being executed within the same minute, showing negative account histories. Meanwhile, polling data aligns with this market shift, with new surveys showing Harris leading in swing states. For example, recent Polymarket data attributes Harris's gains to polling results from Iowa, where she leads Trump 47% to 44%, largely due to rising support among women voters. A win in Iowa would be a pivotal moment for Harris, as Trump carried the state in both 2016 and 2020.
Though the race appears unpredictable, historical trends in betting markets favor frontrunners. However, betting platforms have made errors before, notably underestimating Trump’s surprise victory in 2016. While these markets can offer insights into real-time sentiment, they aren't infallible, serving more as a snapshot of current expectations than a guaranteed forecast.