Ether (ETH) price has struggled to gain upside momentum since the start of 2024. Is Ether really a contrarian bet for 2024, or could it still stage an upside rally?
Ethereum is a “contrarian bet” through Q4
According to Matt Hougan, Bitwise Asset Management’s chief investment officer (CIO), Ethereum could be the underdog headed into 2025.
Hougan noted that Ether has been struggling, particularly after ETH hit an over 42-month low against Bitcoin (BTC) on Sept. 16.
While he remains optimistic about Ether, he noted that price action may remain sluggish for the rest of the year. Hougan wrote in a Sept. 17 blog post:
“From my seat, none of Ethereum’s challenges seem existential, and its opportunities are brimming. I suspect the market may reevaluate Ethereum as we get closer to the November elections and any regulatory clarity that emerges. For now, it looks like a potential contrarian bet through the end of the year.”
Moreover, Hougan notes that Ether’s biggest rival, Solana (SOL), is up 38% year-to-date (YTD), while Ether remains flat. However, Solana’s price has also been struggling against Bitcoin, with some analysts believing that it will follow Ether’s downtrend.
ETH price headed for more downside before 2025?
Ether could see more downside in the shorter term, according to pseudonymous crypto trader GGG, who wrote in a Sept. 19 X post:
“I think we are in a similar spot on $ETH as on the left box. Bear market rally then nuke lower is my guess for now.”
ETH/USDP, 1-week chart. Source: GGG
Additionally, the debut of the first Ethereum exchange-traded funds in July had little positive impact, with net negative flows and ETH price down nearly 30% since.
But if ETH price falls further, the next correction could culminate into a triple bottom chart formation, which could lead to the next Ether rally during the fourth quarter of 2024, noted popular analyst Crypto Bullet in a Sept. 17 X post:
“ETH 2021 vs ETH 2024. Same triple bottom? Looks pretty similar so far.”
Ether triple bottom, 2021 vs 2024 chart. Source: Crypto Bullet
On the 3-day chart, Ether price is retesting its 700-day accumulation range, which acts as a significant support around $2,200, wrote crypto trader Inmortal, in a Sept. 17 X post:
ETH/USDT, 3-day chart. Source: Inmortal
To gain more upside momentum, Ether’s price needs to remain above this key long-term support level.
According to CoinGlass data, a potential Ether price decline below $2,200 would trigger over $1 billion worth of leveraged short liquidations across all exchanges.
ETH Exchange Liquidation Map. Source: CoinGlass
Ether price could also gain more momentum as Bitcoin starts the parabolic phase of the bull cycle. Based on historical chart patterns and Bitcoin’s average monthly returns for the year’s fourth quarter, some analysts predict a three-month Bitcoin rally to $92,000, which could start in October.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
