A quarter point or more? It now seems certain that the American central bank (Fed) will announce its first rate cut since 2020 on Wednesday at the end of its meeting, but the speed of this easing remains uncertain.
Because as inflation gradually falls back into line, it is now time to prevent unemployment from rising in turn. And therefore to start lowering rates, which weigh on economic activity.
These had been raised to curb the surge in prices, and since July 2023 have been in the range of 5.25 to 5.50%, their highest level in more than 20 years.
The start of rate cuts "has been clearly signaled by Fed Chairman (Jerome) Powell and others" officials, Lauren Saidel-Baker, an economist at consulting firm ITR Economics, said in a note.
"The only question now is the extent" of this decline, she adds.
The Fed will release its decision via a press release at 2:00 p.m. local time (6:00 p.m. GMT), then Jerome Powell will hold a press conference thirty minutes later.
"Inertia"
Fed officials could err on the side of caution, to avoid reviving inflation, and opt for a modest cut of a quarter point (25 basis points).
Or, worried about a rapid deterioration in the jobs market and the American economy, they could hit harder, and cut half a point (50 basis points) directly.
The latter option is now favored by two-thirds of market participants, with only a third considering a timid decline, according to CME Group's assessment.