Bitcoin's rebound is facing resistance at $59,000, but it could rise to $65,000 if it breaks above this level.
The key support at $55,800 is crucial; a drop below it could lead to further declines.
Watch for volatility influenced by macroeconomic data amid speculation about interest rate cuts.
The recent downtrend in Bitcoin seems to be slowing as demand increases this week. The cryptocurrency has tested support at the lower boundary of its declining channel for the fourth time since March.
Although the lower boundary of the channel has tightened over the past six months, as indicated by the dashed line on the chart, this boundary has expanded in recent months due to recent price declines.
This week's early rebound aligns with an upward trendline that started in September 2023. Although this trendline initially lost significance during Bitcoin's exponential growth earlier this year, it has regained importance as a support level during the current correction.
We will continue to monitor this upward trendline as a key support level in the coming days.
Possible Scenarios for Bitcoin
Bitcoin's positive momentum this week is facing resistance near the $57,900 level, where the 21-day EMA acts as a dynamic barrier.
The Stochastic RSI, currently in overbought territory, suggests a potential slowdown in buying pressure. Weekend trading may test the $58,000 level further. However, without fresh buying surges, profit-taking may follow the recent gains.
If profit-taking pushes Bitcoin below $58,000, the $55,800 level becomes crucial. This price level lies at the intersection of the lower band of the descending channel and the medium-term upward trend. Holding at this level could set the stage for a stronger upward move.
If Bitcoin breaks above the middle of the channel at $59,000 with strong volume after dropping to $55,800, we could see a rally similar to that of May, potentially reaching $65,000.
Technical indicators and moving averages currently reflect price movements from early May, suggesting a possible rise to $65,000. However, the $61,000 level may act as intermediate resistance.
Given Bitcoin's volatility, significant reactions often occur at medium support and resistance levels, as seen in the buying reaction from the $53,500-$54,500 range last week.
Bearish Scenario
If Bitcoin fails to maintain momentum at $58,000 and loses support at $55,800, it could fall to the $53,000-$53,500 range, aligning with the lower band of the channel and Fib 0.618 support. A break below this level would target $48,300, supported by Fib 0.786, with intermediate support around $50,000.