**$BTC Sunday Update: Volatile Week Ahead with FOMC on Wednesday**
Expect a volatile week as the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on Wednesday could significantly impact market sentiment. Hereâs what to watch for:
**Market Expectations:**
- **FED to keep rates unchanged.**
- **Potential signal for a rate cut in September.**
Key Analysis đ§”
Scenario from July 7th Update:
- Unemployment up
- Inflation down
- Market pricing in a potential rate cut in September, boosting BTC post-CPI.
This scenario has played out. Now, new pressures are emerging for the FED to announce a rate cut in September.
Current Observations:
- FED Pressure:
- Media, economists, and market forces are urging a rate cut.
- Jerome Powell might resist premature market hype, needing more data (2 CPI and 2 NFP reports) before deciding.
Possible FED Statement:
"We'll cut rates when we make sure inflation is moving back down to 2% and for that, we must stay data-dependent. We need to see the coming data from the next 2 months."
Such a stance could lead to market volatility due to investor disappointment.
Personal Take:
- This is speculative: No certainty on FED actions.
- Based on observation and education: This scenario seems plausible.
Projection/Plan:
- Potential Scenario with Jerome Powell:
- Targeting the wick in the 1D time frame.
- Long wicks tend to get filled according to the wick fill strategy.
- HTF view: Price should reach between $71.6k and $73.8k.
- These highs haven't been hit for a while, creating an open interest (OI) gap and gathering liquidations in HTF.
Trading Caution:
- Difficult trading week ahead.
- Trade with caution.
- Frequent updates throughout the week. đ€
